With Xmas around the corner I thought I'd fantasize my own Xmas shopping list for the Dodgers.
As we all know the last year has been crazy with the Guggenheim Partners buying up the Dodgers and then spending millions to improve the team. First came the signing of Andre Either to a 5yr/85mil extension, then Hanley Ramirez joined the team, and finally the Red Sox's fire sale sending Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford over to the Dodgers. Then add to the spending the winter signings of Zack Greinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and bringing back Brandon League, and it seems that the Guggenheim Partners have gone all in to bring LA a World Series right now.
Yet despite all this spending and bringing the payroll up over the $200 million mark, sports writers are weary of this Dodger Super team. David Schoenfield of ESPN placed the Dodgers 7th in his winter rankings, and he worries that the age of the players may be a factor in their results for 2013. His worry is a valid point, and while many brush off this comment for the current year, there should be concern about the future. If the Dodgers keep Crawford and Either to the conclusion of their contracts in 2017 the outfield would consist of Matt Kemp (32), Crawford (35) and Either (35). Hardly a young set of outfielders. And to make matters worse they would also have a 35 yr old Adrian Gonzalez manning first. Last year the Dodger's ranked 3rd to last in batter's age, with only Philly and the Yanks behind them, and even with the removal of Juan Rivera from the starting lineup, they do not project to get much younger.
So how can the Dodgers get younger...? Well their best bet would be to fill other spots on the field with young prospects. The positions they could do this at would be 2nd, 3rd, Short, and Catcher. However, the Dodger organization is not particularly strong at any of these positions, in fact they have only one infield prospect in the their top 10, Corey Seager, the younger brother of Kyle Seager who plays 3rd for the Mariners, and won't be ready for at least 2 years if rushed. Another option would be to go back to playing Dee Gordon, but the organization seems to have soured on the young speedster. So with no internal options available the Dodgers need to trade for some young talent to put in their offense. But who would want the high priced talent the Dodgers have available to trade?
Well 1 team that I've already mentioned is interested in two Dodgers, and has called the club to ask about them. Who am I talking about, the Mariners! With Hamilton having signed the Mariners are looking for a power lefthanded bat and have called about Andre Either. According to Mike Petriello of MSTI "Even last year, when [Either] struggled for months at a time, he had the 7th highest wOBA against righties of any other player, better than Josh Hamilton or Giancarlo Stanton or Joe Mauer or Chase Headley. Over the last three years, he’s 9th; over the last five, he’s 7th." The Mariners also seem to be high on Dee Gordon, being one of the few teams that believes they can develop the speedster. The Mariners are also looking for some solid back of the rotation arms to shore up their pitching behind King Felix. If a high ranked pitching prospect gets thrown into the mix with a good deal of money, the Mariners could walk away with a pretty decent package, to get the outfield "Slugger" they've been coveting all offseason. So what would the Dodgers ask for in return...? Well Corey's older brother Kyle Seager of course. In his 1st full year in the majors Kyle hit 259/316/423 (avg/obp/slg). While these numbers aren't as inspiring as Either's 284/359/465 clip, both batters hit over 30 doubles and 20 home runs, plus Kyle has yet to enter his prime, while Either moves towards the end of his. Also Kyle showed more ability to hit lefties than the troubled Either.
The benfits of getting Kyle Seager are not just limited to his age. Getting Seager this year opens up a spot in the Dodger's outfield. This could be plugged by signing a 2 year deal with another brother, Scott Hairston and platooning him and Skip Schumaker, as both have crushed pitchers from the opposite side. This also allows for Yasiel Puig to be unblocked, and for him to join the outfield within the next year or two. While some may wonder about losing offensive production, Hairston and Seager project to about 40hrs vs, Either and Cruz's projected 28hrs. In addition, Kyle's original position is 2nd. Assuming the Dodger's fast track his brother, and allow Kyle a few games and practice time at 2nd, the infielder could slide over there to make room for his brother. While this trade may reduce the potency of the Dodgers' outfield for 2013, the benefit in shoring up the infield, and allowing for the team to remain competitive beyond the next three years makes it a hell of a good deal.
Wednesday, December 19, 2012
Friday, April 13, 2012
A Pitchers Worst Nightmare
With the startup of AJ Ellis facts, and it's entertaining joke facts, I was reminded of an argument I had with a friend after the 2010 season about the unseen advantages of Casey Blake. At the time I stated that an unseen benefit of Casey Blake was his tenacity at the plate, and with his tenacity he he aided the team in chasing pitchers out of the game early.
Now what's the benefit of this? In the modern age of closely watched pitch counts, and bullpen arms not seeing more than 2 games in a row, the amount of work that pitchers see is very closely watched. Let's give an example of how a three game series may work out if a team successfully extended their plate appearences in order to chase pitchers out of the game. Let's assume that with a bullpen of 7 pitchers 3 were used the night before going into the three game series leaving 4 fresh relievers. Assuming the batters work full counts, and they average one man on base each inning, then with 4 batters faced each inning the starter would pitch 100 pitches by the fifth and most likly be done at that point. If this can be repeated all three days, than with 4 innings of baseball left, 12 innings at least will need to be covered by the bullpen. That doesn't even include situational switches in order to set up lefty on lefty matchups. Basically, by the third game of the series the opposing team, now deep into their bullpen, will be useing their worst and most ineffective relievers to close out the series rather than their best. In fact in 2011, the two teams who saw the most pitches per plate appearence ranked number 1 and 2 runs scored as well.
In closing there is a great deal of unseen value to batters like AJ Ellis, whom so far this year is ranked 2nd in pitches seen per plate appearance and I wish the Dodgers had a few more batters like him.
Now what's the benefit of this? In the modern age of closely watched pitch counts, and bullpen arms not seeing more than 2 games in a row, the amount of work that pitchers see is very closely watched. Let's give an example of how a three game series may work out if a team successfully extended their plate appearences in order to chase pitchers out of the game. Let's assume that with a bullpen of 7 pitchers 3 were used the night before going into the three game series leaving 4 fresh relievers. Assuming the batters work full counts, and they average one man on base each inning, then with 4 batters faced each inning the starter would pitch 100 pitches by the fifth and most likly be done at that point. If this can be repeated all three days, than with 4 innings of baseball left, 12 innings at least will need to be covered by the bullpen. That doesn't even include situational switches in order to set up lefty on lefty matchups. Basically, by the third game of the series the opposing team, now deep into their bullpen, will be useing their worst and most ineffective relievers to close out the series rather than their best. In fact in 2011, the two teams who saw the most pitches per plate appearence ranked number 1 and 2 runs scored as well.
In closing there is a great deal of unseen value to batters like AJ Ellis, whom so far this year is ranked 2nd in pitches seen per plate appearance and I wish the Dodgers had a few more batters like him.
Thursday, April 12, 2012
Dodgers looks to have a solid 1-2 pitching punch!
So 6 games into the season and the Dodgers own a league leading 5-1 record. This is the first time the Dodgers have had this good of a start since 1999, but the 1999 team finished under .500 and did not make the playoffs. So what should we really be looking at 6 games into the season? We should be looking at the fact that so far this season the Dodgers are not just a team of two lone gunslingers, Matt Kemp for batting and Kershaw for pitching. Instead the team has a pair of dynamic duo, with Matt Kemp and Andre Either for hitting, and Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley leading the pitching. Add a lights out bullpen, and things are looking bright for the 2012 Dodgers. For Either its clear that the healthy knee has made a word of difference allowing him to hit the ball with more authority, and allowing him to get around left handed pitching as he is 3 for 9 against lefties to start the season. Even with Either's lights out batting right now, I'm going to focus instead on the second half of the pitching duo, Chad Billingsley.
Entering 2009 the Dodgers thought they had the best young pitching duo in Chad Billingsley who at 24 had just finished a solid 16-10 season, and young fireballing lefty Clayton Kershaw. Since then Kershaw has developed into one of the best 5 pitchers in baseball, while Billingsley has shown no development. In 2008 Chad finished the season with a 9 SO/9 (innings), and a 3.6 BB/9. In 2009 the strikeout rate fell to a 8.2 SO/9, while the BB/9 stayed near 4 at 3.9. In 2010 the strikeout rate continued dropping to a 8.0 SO/9, and the BB/9 saw a slight decline to 3.2. In 2011 the first year Chad did not finish with a winning record, his SO/9 bottomed out at 7.3 while his BB/9 rose to an all time high at 4. This means that over the past 4 years Billingsley has seen his SO/BB drop a respectable 2.5 down to a 1.8. Now looking at these numbers you're most likely wondering what can all this mean when put together.
When drafted in 2003 there was no doubt that Chad Billingsley had great stuff, and even today people still know he has great stuff. In fact one of the things that Billingsley has stayed consistently good at is not allowing batters to get solid contact. In the last 4 years he has never been worse than 17th for slugging percentage, meaning even if he allows hits most of the hits allowed are singles. If it wasn't for walking batters as well his ERA would drop drastically. In fact there have been other successful pitchers who didn't have high strikeout totals, but instead use their ability to make hitters not square up, and lack of walks to put together a good SO/BB ratio, and have good seasons. Two great examples would be Matt Cain and Tim Hudson. Last season Cain had a SO/9 rate of 7.3, but only walked 2.6 BB/9 giving him a SO/BB ratio of 2.84 on his way to a 2.88 ERA. Hudson had a 6.6 SO/9 rate, with a 2.3 BB/9, giving him a SO/BB ratio of 2.82, with an ERA of 3.22. If Billingsley can keep his walks down, his strikeout to walk ratio will improve leading to a lower ERA and more wins. The importance of not giving up walks is evident in Clayton Kershaw's 2011 where he won a Cy Young award. During 2011 Kershaw dropped his BB/9 from 3.6 to 2.1, which in turn allowed him to go further into games and pitch more innings in 2011 than any of his previous seasons.
For 2012, the greatest improvement to Chad's pitching has been his reduced walk rate. In no other season has Billingsley had only 1 walk through 2 starts, and with that, only allowed 1 run. Looking at this there is no way Chad will continue to walk so few batters, but lets assume that over the season he can improve on his career numbers and post a 2.5 BB/9. Over a 200 inning season that means walking about 55 batters, about 30 less than 2011. Since 4 walks make a run, we'll divide the 30 runners by 4, and make about 8 runs saved over the course of a year. Chad allowed 88 earned runs in nearly 200 innings. Now subtract 8 runs from that to make 80 runs. This would drop Chad's ERA down to a very respectable 3.63.
In short Chad Billingsley has good stuff, and can be a good pitcher. For years he's been trying to be a strikeout, swing and miss type pitcher, but that's not who he is. Chad hard to square up, mis-hit type pitcher, who doesn't get hit hard, and grinds through his innings without a lot of flash. If he wants to pitch well this year, he only needs to do one thing, stop walking people. If Chad can say drop his walks down to 50 walks this year, he is gonna see a vast improvement in all his other stats, and become a true one two punch with Kershaw.
Entering 2009 the Dodgers thought they had the best young pitching duo in Chad Billingsley who at 24 had just finished a solid 16-10 season, and young fireballing lefty Clayton Kershaw. Since then Kershaw has developed into one of the best 5 pitchers in baseball, while Billingsley has shown no development. In 2008 Chad finished the season with a 9 SO/9 (innings), and a 3.6 BB/9. In 2009 the strikeout rate fell to a 8.2 SO/9, while the BB/9 stayed near 4 at 3.9. In 2010 the strikeout rate continued dropping to a 8.0 SO/9, and the BB/9 saw a slight decline to 3.2. In 2011 the first year Chad did not finish with a winning record, his SO/9 bottomed out at 7.3 while his BB/9 rose to an all time high at 4. This means that over the past 4 years Billingsley has seen his SO/BB drop a respectable 2.5 down to a 1.8. Now looking at these numbers you're most likely wondering what can all this mean when put together.
When drafted in 2003 there was no doubt that Chad Billingsley had great stuff, and even today people still know he has great stuff. In fact one of the things that Billingsley has stayed consistently good at is not allowing batters to get solid contact. In the last 4 years he has never been worse than 17th for slugging percentage, meaning even if he allows hits most of the hits allowed are singles. If it wasn't for walking batters as well his ERA would drop drastically. In fact there have been other successful pitchers who didn't have high strikeout totals, but instead use their ability to make hitters not square up, and lack of walks to put together a good SO/BB ratio, and have good seasons. Two great examples would be Matt Cain and Tim Hudson. Last season Cain had a SO/9 rate of 7.3, but only walked 2.6 BB/9 giving him a SO/BB ratio of 2.84 on his way to a 2.88 ERA. Hudson had a 6.6 SO/9 rate, with a 2.3 BB/9, giving him a SO/BB ratio of 2.82, with an ERA of 3.22. If Billingsley can keep his walks down, his strikeout to walk ratio will improve leading to a lower ERA and more wins. The importance of not giving up walks is evident in Clayton Kershaw's 2011 where he won a Cy Young award. During 2011 Kershaw dropped his BB/9 from 3.6 to 2.1, which in turn allowed him to go further into games and pitch more innings in 2011 than any of his previous seasons.
For 2012, the greatest improvement to Chad's pitching has been his reduced walk rate. In no other season has Billingsley had only 1 walk through 2 starts, and with that, only allowed 1 run. Looking at this there is no way Chad will continue to walk so few batters, but lets assume that over the season he can improve on his career numbers and post a 2.5 BB/9. Over a 200 inning season that means walking about 55 batters, about 30 less than 2011. Since 4 walks make a run, we'll divide the 30 runners by 4, and make about 8 runs saved over the course of a year. Chad allowed 88 earned runs in nearly 200 innings. Now subtract 8 runs from that to make 80 runs. This would drop Chad's ERA down to a very respectable 3.63.
In short Chad Billingsley has good stuff, and can be a good pitcher. For years he's been trying to be a strikeout, swing and miss type pitcher, but that's not who he is. Chad hard to square up, mis-hit type pitcher, who doesn't get hit hard, and grinds through his innings without a lot of flash. If he wants to pitch well this year, he only needs to do one thing, stop walking people. If Chad can say drop his walks down to 50 walks this year, he is gonna see a vast improvement in all his other stats, and become a true one two punch with Kershaw.
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
Opening Day at Dodger Stadium! 50 Years in Chavez Ravine
Dodgers Lineup for 4/10:
1. Dee Gordon SS
2. Mark Ellis 2B
3. Matt Kemp CF
4. Andre Either RF
5. Juan Rivera LF
6. James Loney 1B
7. Juan Uribe 3B
8. AJ Ellis C
9. Clayton Kershaw P
Well as the Dodgers have their home opener today, I guess I should get on and give a review of the weekend. After their first week in baseball, the Dodgers have a record of 3-1, a very solid and respectable record, good enough to start out a half game back of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Now to put things in perspective four games is only 2.5% of the season, but it's always good to start things off on the right foot which the Dodgers certainly did. Also it's not like the Padres are an offensive powerhouse team, however, even in the cavernous depths of Petco park the Dodgers were able to average just over 5 runs per game though their first 4. As we look at the 2012 season, and the Dodgers chances at securing a postseason berth, I believe it is necessary to look at how their schedule pans out, because in the wake of new ownership things could shape up in an interesting way.
Looking at the Dodgers lineup, it certainly can be said that their is a good deal of talent. Certainly, Matt Kemp and Andre Either, are talented hitters, and it looks like Dee Gordon could be one as well. Juan Rivera lately seems to be experiencing a resurgence in his career, and Mark Ellis has show a great deal of self sacrifice, focusing on moving Dee into scoring position by any means (mostly resulting in an out). That means that the Dodgers offense relies entirely on the first five hitters, and more specifically the 1,3,4 and 5 hitters. As James Loney and Juan Uribe have become offensive black holes again, the only other bright spot in the lineup is AJ Ellis, unfortunately, his OBP skills are only being used in an attempt to roll over the lineup. So what does that mean? Boiled down it means that there are 4 easy outs in the Dodgers lineup, and without a deep lineup, their offense relies on the shoulders of 4 men, a heavy load, especially if any of them go into slumps.
Despite the short lineup, the Dodgers still have a chance to make a splash in 2012. In the first 50 games of the season, the Dodgers face teams that had a .500 or better record in 2011, only 19 times. They face the Padres 9 times, and the Astros 6 times. This is a very easy start to the season, and assuming that they can walk away with 2 wins for every three games against the under 500 teams, and 1 win in three against the over 500 teams, the Dodgers would have a respectable and competitive 27-23 record, with 2 thirds of the season left to play. If the Dodgers can stay relevant up to the Allstar game, then ownership has a chance to make a difference and give the Dodgers a legitimate shot as the they move in to the tougher portion of their schedule. With a mid season trade, for someone like David Wright, the Dodgers can lengthen their lineup, help spread the offensive load, and make themselves a legitimate contender. It may seem crazy, but due to the easy first half of the schedule, and new ownership, the Dodgers in fact have a chance to make a post season run this year, if they can win the games they should win, and nothing major happens to the short offense in the lineup.
1. Dee Gordon SS
2. Mark Ellis 2B
3. Matt Kemp CF
4. Andre Either RF
5. Juan Rivera LF
6. James Loney 1B
7. Juan Uribe 3B
8. AJ Ellis C
9. Clayton Kershaw P
Well as the Dodgers have their home opener today, I guess I should get on and give a review of the weekend. After their first week in baseball, the Dodgers have a record of 3-1, a very solid and respectable record, good enough to start out a half game back of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Now to put things in perspective four games is only 2.5% of the season, but it's always good to start things off on the right foot which the Dodgers certainly did. Also it's not like the Padres are an offensive powerhouse team, however, even in the cavernous depths of Petco park the Dodgers were able to average just over 5 runs per game though their first 4. As we look at the 2012 season, and the Dodgers chances at securing a postseason berth, I believe it is necessary to look at how their schedule pans out, because in the wake of new ownership things could shape up in an interesting way.
Looking at the Dodgers lineup, it certainly can be said that their is a good deal of talent. Certainly, Matt Kemp and Andre Either, are talented hitters, and it looks like Dee Gordon could be one as well. Juan Rivera lately seems to be experiencing a resurgence in his career, and Mark Ellis has show a great deal of self sacrifice, focusing on moving Dee into scoring position by any means (mostly resulting in an out). That means that the Dodgers offense relies entirely on the first five hitters, and more specifically the 1,3,4 and 5 hitters. As James Loney and Juan Uribe have become offensive black holes again, the only other bright spot in the lineup is AJ Ellis, unfortunately, his OBP skills are only being used in an attempt to roll over the lineup. So what does that mean? Boiled down it means that there are 4 easy outs in the Dodgers lineup, and without a deep lineup, their offense relies on the shoulders of 4 men, a heavy load, especially if any of them go into slumps.
Despite the short lineup, the Dodgers still have a chance to make a splash in 2012. In the first 50 games of the season, the Dodgers face teams that had a .500 or better record in 2011, only 19 times. They face the Padres 9 times, and the Astros 6 times. This is a very easy start to the season, and assuming that they can walk away with 2 wins for every three games against the under 500 teams, and 1 win in three against the over 500 teams, the Dodgers would have a respectable and competitive 27-23 record, with 2 thirds of the season left to play. If the Dodgers can stay relevant up to the Allstar game, then ownership has a chance to make a difference and give the Dodgers a legitimate shot as the they move in to the tougher portion of their schedule. With a mid season trade, for someone like David Wright, the Dodgers can lengthen their lineup, help spread the offensive load, and make themselves a legitimate contender. It may seem crazy, but due to the easy first half of the schedule, and new ownership, the Dodgers in fact have a chance to make a post season run this year, if they can win the games they should win, and nothing major happens to the short offense in the lineup.
Friday, April 6, 2012
Dodger's are number 1!
After one game the Dodgers are first in the West!
Well the post I wrote earlier today was supposed to be the game recap. However, as I began to write it I got sidetracked by what really was an incredible pitching effort Clayton Kershaw put forth. So now in this post I will do a quick recap of the game.
To start the game Kershaw threw better than anyone could have hoped for. After he finished Josh Lindblom, showed why he was picked to stay on the team with two shutout innings. Mike was his normal wild self, and after giving up a walk, he allowed one run, knocked in on a Jesus Guzman double. in his one inning of relief. Gurrier worked a scoreless inning, getting out on a double play. Jansen, allowed a two run homer, and I must say I'm a little worried about the number of homers he's allowed lately in spring training and here. To me it looks like he has slowed his fastball a few mph to get more control of his pitches, but also losing some of it's late movement. A close eye will need to be kept on him to make sure this doesn't blow up into another Broxton. And Guerra pitched a scoreless inning for the save. Overall a solid outing from the bullpen.
On the other side of the tape the Dodgers had a decent day as well. Kemp and Rivera both had good days with two hits apiece. Kemp hit his first homerun of the season, a high pop fly, that just happened to come down over the outfield scoreboard (and by inches). Also of note with Kemp is that he did not strike out at all, so perhaps we were all worried for nothing about his spring numbers. Kemp also was caught stealing, when he picked a bad pitch to run on, however, on the other side of things, the pitch was a fastball right down the middle of the plate, and Ethier who was up to bat, should have taken a swing at the batting practice pitch. AJ Ellis performed as expected having a hit, and working out a bases loaded walk. In fact AJ didn't even swing his bat for the first 17 pitches he saw, and worked out full counts all three times he came up to the plate including his walk. I mean "wow" talk about patience at the plate. Also his single came off a ten pitch at bat. In all Ellis saw 27 pitches in just four at bats. Even more incredible was Juan Uribe managed to work himself a walk in between his two strikeouts. Now on to the distressing portion of the offense. Dee Gordon managed to walk away from the game 0 for 5. Now I contest that he was actually 1 for 5 as his "triple" was labeled an "error". An error is defined as: a fielder misplaying a ball in a manner that allows a batter or baserunner to reach one or more additional bases, when such an advance would have been prevented given ordinary effort by the fielder. Anyone, other than the scorer could see that the amount of effort it took Camron Maybin to track down Gordon's long fly ball was not, I repeat NOT, an ordinary effort. However, it was clear that Dee was not identifying the pitches well out of Volquez's hand. Also he did not show his bunt attack, something which given the effectiveness when combined with his speed, should be used at least once each game.
Overall it was a solid game by the Dodgers, but to quote Wills and Uribe's new shirt "You can do better!"
On the minor league side of things, the Dodgers High A affiliate, the Rancho Cucamunga Quakes, and AAA affiliate, the Albuquerque Isotopes both lost. Despite that some prospects performed well. Future ace Zach Lee pitched 5 scoreless innings, allowing only one hit and one walk, with 5 strikeouts. For the Topes some offense showed up to the game despite the loss. Castellanos played the whole game at second, went 1 for 4 with a triple and drew two walks and had two steals. Scott Van Slyke had a walk and went 2 for 4 with a homerun. Future backstop Fedex went 1 for 3 and worked 2 walks. Lastly, despite not getting a hit in 4 at bats, Sands knocked in 2, one with a walk, and the other on an error. Despite some great hitting from the Topes' they were 1 for 13 with runners in scoring position, which ultimately led to their loss.
Well the post I wrote earlier today was supposed to be the game recap. However, as I began to write it I got sidetracked by what really was an incredible pitching effort Clayton Kershaw put forth. So now in this post I will do a quick recap of the game.
To start the game Kershaw threw better than anyone could have hoped for. After he finished Josh Lindblom, showed why he was picked to stay on the team with two shutout innings. Mike was his normal wild self, and after giving up a walk, he allowed one run, knocked in on a Jesus Guzman double. in his one inning of relief. Gurrier worked a scoreless inning, getting out on a double play. Jansen, allowed a two run homer, and I must say I'm a little worried about the number of homers he's allowed lately in spring training and here. To me it looks like he has slowed his fastball a few mph to get more control of his pitches, but also losing some of it's late movement. A close eye will need to be kept on him to make sure this doesn't blow up into another Broxton. And Guerra pitched a scoreless inning for the save. Overall a solid outing from the bullpen.
On the other side of the tape the Dodgers had a decent day as well. Kemp and Rivera both had good days with two hits apiece. Kemp hit his first homerun of the season, a high pop fly, that just happened to come down over the outfield scoreboard (and by inches). Also of note with Kemp is that he did not strike out at all, so perhaps we were all worried for nothing about his spring numbers. Kemp also was caught stealing, when he picked a bad pitch to run on, however, on the other side of things, the pitch was a fastball right down the middle of the plate, and Ethier who was up to bat, should have taken a swing at the batting practice pitch. AJ Ellis performed as expected having a hit, and working out a bases loaded walk. In fact AJ didn't even swing his bat for the first 17 pitches he saw, and worked out full counts all three times he came up to the plate including his walk. I mean "wow" talk about patience at the plate. Also his single came off a ten pitch at bat. In all Ellis saw 27 pitches in just four at bats. Even more incredible was Juan Uribe managed to work himself a walk in between his two strikeouts. Now on to the distressing portion of the offense. Dee Gordon managed to walk away from the game 0 for 5. Now I contest that he was actually 1 for 5 as his "triple" was labeled an "error". An error is defined as: a fielder misplaying a ball in a manner that allows a batter or baserunner to reach one or more additional bases, when such an advance would have been prevented given ordinary effort by the fielder. Anyone, other than the scorer could see that the amount of effort it took Camron Maybin to track down Gordon's long fly ball was not, I repeat NOT, an ordinary effort. However, it was clear that Dee was not identifying the pitches well out of Volquez's hand. Also he did not show his bunt attack, something which given the effectiveness when combined with his speed, should be used at least once each game.
Overall it was a solid game by the Dodgers, but to quote Wills and Uribe's new shirt "You can do better!"
On the minor league side of things, the Dodgers High A affiliate, the Rancho Cucamunga Quakes, and AAA affiliate, the Albuquerque Isotopes both lost. Despite that some prospects performed well. Future ace Zach Lee pitched 5 scoreless innings, allowing only one hit and one walk, with 5 strikeouts. For the Topes some offense showed up to the game despite the loss. Castellanos played the whole game at second, went 1 for 4 with a triple and drew two walks and had two steals. Scott Van Slyke had a walk and went 2 for 4 with a homerun. Future backstop Fedex went 1 for 3 and worked 2 walks. Lastly, despite not getting a hit in 4 at bats, Sands knocked in 2, one with a walk, and the other on an error. Despite some great hitting from the Topes' they were 1 for 13 with runners in scoring position, which ultimately led to their loss.
Clayton Kershaw, is there anything he can't do?
Well opening day has come and gone at Petco Park, and after all was finished the team still standing was the Dodgers. For anybody who didn't watch this game could have been all kinds of crazy.
Minutes before the the game Vin Scully on the TV announced that despite the pleading of his manager, Don Mattingly, and pitching coach, Rick Honeycutt, Clayton Kershaw decided to take the mound. He had been suffering all day with a stomach flu, unable to eat, and leaking fluids from all ends. Scully even mentioned how Kershaw was needing to squat down and take breaks between throws of his long toss warm up. Despite how he felt Kershaw pulled himself together and marched himself to the mound perhaps hoping that game time adrenaline would get him through his ailment so that he could pitch.
However, things wouldn't be so easy, as it became clear on Clayton's second pitch, an 89 mph four seam fastball, that Clayton was not himself. Now to the casual observer there may not be much of a difference between a 90 mph fastball and a 95 mph fastball (Clayton's normal speed), but to baseball, it's a world of difference. Just ask Kershaw's teammates Ted Lilly or Chris Capuano, both know as soft tossing lefties, how much extra precision they need to get by on their 89 mph fastballs. Despite lacking his number 1 pitch to which he build his pitching repertoire around, Kershaw made it through the first inning on only 8 pitches, getting two groundouts and a flyout. The second took a little longer, the side was retired on 12 pitches, with two groundouts and a strikeout.
As the top of the third neared its conclusion up to the plate came Kershaw with a bat in his hand. One can only imagine the conversation between Kershaw and Mattingly before going to the plate, but one must assume that with Kershaw's condition Mattingly would have said, "take it easy. Don't swing and don't get hurt. Concentrate on your own pitching." However taking it easy isn't something Clayton does, instead on a 1 and 1 pitch he hits a single to left field. When the left fielder then bobbles the ball, Kershaw only hesitates for a moment considering his condition before throwing caution to the wind and running down to second.
When Kershaw slowly walks to the mound in the bottom of the third he is clearly fatigued he gets two quick outs on a ground out and strikeout before the wheels start to come off the wagon. Soon after two singles, a wild pitch and a walk the bases are loaded. Kershaw is facing Nick Hundley. After 3 pitches the count is 1 and 2. Kershaw takes a deep breath, reels back and fires. it's a 92 mph fastball, his second fastest pitch of the night. Even with all his remaining strength mustered into the throw it's still well below his average speed. However, the pitch was fast enough as it caught the inside corner of the plate and sent a frozen Hundly back to his dugout. Kershaw having retired the side walks slowly back to the dugout. As the Dodgers worked the top of the fourth for 3 runs, we were told that Mattingly found Kershaw laying on the floor in the tunnel behind the dugout. Kershaw could barely move, but he was working up the effort to go out and pitch another inning. At that point Donnie Baseball told the young pitcher that he was done for the day, and the bullpen would finish up the game.
People always talk about how cliche movies can be, and that life is never like the movies. What compels us to watch sports is that it contains real life moments that do defy definition. If you ask a Dodger fan which is a greater moment, Roy Hobbs light shattering home run in "The Natural", or Kirk Gibson's home run in the 1988 World Series, without a doubt that person would say Gibson's was the most moving. In truth, movies many times are an attempt to copy a small part greatest moments in life. Kershaw's battle against adversity yesterday was such a moment, and if you haven't seen it yet I suggest you do.
Minutes before the the game Vin Scully on the TV announced that despite the pleading of his manager, Don Mattingly, and pitching coach, Rick Honeycutt, Clayton Kershaw decided to take the mound. He had been suffering all day with a stomach flu, unable to eat, and leaking fluids from all ends. Scully even mentioned how Kershaw was needing to squat down and take breaks between throws of his long toss warm up. Despite how he felt Kershaw pulled himself together and marched himself to the mound perhaps hoping that game time adrenaline would get him through his ailment so that he could pitch.
However, things wouldn't be so easy, as it became clear on Clayton's second pitch, an 89 mph four seam fastball, that Clayton was not himself. Now to the casual observer there may not be much of a difference between a 90 mph fastball and a 95 mph fastball (Clayton's normal speed), but to baseball, it's a world of difference. Just ask Kershaw's teammates Ted Lilly or Chris Capuano, both know as soft tossing lefties, how much extra precision they need to get by on their 89 mph fastballs. Despite lacking his number 1 pitch to which he build his pitching repertoire around, Kershaw made it through the first inning on only 8 pitches, getting two groundouts and a flyout. The second took a little longer, the side was retired on 12 pitches, with two groundouts and a strikeout.
As the top of the third neared its conclusion up to the plate came Kershaw with a bat in his hand. One can only imagine the conversation between Kershaw and Mattingly before going to the plate, but one must assume that with Kershaw's condition Mattingly would have said, "take it easy. Don't swing and don't get hurt. Concentrate on your own pitching." However taking it easy isn't something Clayton does, instead on a 1 and 1 pitch he hits a single to left field. When the left fielder then bobbles the ball, Kershaw only hesitates for a moment considering his condition before throwing caution to the wind and running down to second.
When Kershaw slowly walks to the mound in the bottom of the third he is clearly fatigued he gets two quick outs on a ground out and strikeout before the wheels start to come off the wagon. Soon after two singles, a wild pitch and a walk the bases are loaded. Kershaw is facing Nick Hundley. After 3 pitches the count is 1 and 2. Kershaw takes a deep breath, reels back and fires. it's a 92 mph fastball, his second fastest pitch of the night. Even with all his remaining strength mustered into the throw it's still well below his average speed. However, the pitch was fast enough as it caught the inside corner of the plate and sent a frozen Hundly back to his dugout. Kershaw having retired the side walks slowly back to the dugout. As the Dodgers worked the top of the fourth for 3 runs, we were told that Mattingly found Kershaw laying on the floor in the tunnel behind the dugout. Kershaw could barely move, but he was working up the effort to go out and pitch another inning. At that point Donnie Baseball told the young pitcher that he was done for the day, and the bullpen would finish up the game.
People always talk about how cliche movies can be, and that life is never like the movies. What compels us to watch sports is that it contains real life moments that do defy definition. If you ask a Dodger fan which is a greater moment, Roy Hobbs light shattering home run in "The Natural", or Kirk Gibson's home run in the 1988 World Series, without a doubt that person would say Gibson's was the most moving. In truth, movies many times are an attempt to copy a small part greatest moments in life. Kershaw's battle against adversity yesterday was such a moment, and if you haven't seen it yet I suggest you do.
Thursday, March 29, 2012
Despite new ownership Magic's and Kastan's hands will be tied
As we enter a new era for Dodger baseball, one filled with hope and promises from the soon to be owners, we cannot forget that this team is currently chained into mediocrity for the next two years. As shocking as this may seem, especially given Magic, and Kastan's statement that they bought the Dodgers with the intention of winning now, if you look at the current state of the Dodger contracts, things do not look pretty, and the man who set all of this up is Ned Colletti.
Looking towards the 2013 season there are some interesting free agents available, however, the focus of the market is in pitching and not offense. For starting pitching the likes of Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, and Zack Grinke are available. For the offense the biggest names would be Miguel Montero (C), Mike Napoli (C), Brandon Philips (2B), Josh Hamilton (OF)and our favorite Andre Either (RF).
First let's look at starting pitching. Currently the Dodgers rotation is set as Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsly, Ted Lilly, Aaron Harng, Chris Capuano. Of these Lilly, Harang, and Capuano are all signed through the 2013 season and to make matters worse, all three contracts are end loaded. In 2013, Lilly will earn 12 million, Harang, 7 million, and Capuano 6 million. Now in order to sign any new starting pitching the Dodgers will need to release or trade a pitcher, and considering how much is owed to these pitchers the Dodgers will also need to pick up some of their tab in order to trade them. My guess is that Harang, or Capuano can be traded, however 4 million of Harang's, and 3 million of Capuano's contract would need to be picked up in order to make a move. Basically it comes down to the question of is Kastan willing to pay a couple million to open up a rotation spot and get a low level prospect.
Now onto position players, and possibly the more depressing part of this post. For next season the open positions (assuming Rivera's option isn't picked up) are 1st base, left field and right field. Catcher can also be considered a place for upgrade as AJ Ellis (despite how much I like the guy) profiles out as a strong backup catcher. This mean that even if David Wright's $16 million option is not picked up by the Mets (making him the best 3rd baseman available), the Dodgers would have no room for him, unless they can unload Uribe and the 8 million he's owed, or relegate his 8 million dollar butt to the bench. This same situation can be seen at 2nd base as well, where Brandon Philips is available, however in order to make space for him, Mark Ellis and the 5 million owed to him would need to be traded, and I just can't see there being a lot of interest in a 35 year old glove first second baseman. As for filling the openings available, picking up Montero and Napoli could be a wise and solid investment. Since Napoli can play both catcher and 1st, his signing in addition to Napoli, would allow for Napoli to catch on Montero's days off. Adding the two would bring two solid bats on each side of the plate, Napoli having a career line of 264/259/514 (Avg/OBP/Slg), and Montero's career is 271/338/451. Together they would also provide at least 35 home runs, nearly 20 more than Loney, and AJ Ellis combined. As for the outfield, with the lack of impact free agents available, it would perhaps be in the Dodger's best interest to lock up Andre Eithier. The only other outfield impact bat would be Hamilton, and while his numbers are great, a career 308/366/543, I am cautious as to how his bat will perform outside of the friendly confines of Ranger's Ballpark, and how his off the field issues will effect his on field play.
In conclusion, though I'm excited about the new owners, I'm just not sure how they can turn the Dodgers into a championship team in the next two years, with barely any open positions in which to sign free agents.
Looking towards the 2013 season there are some interesting free agents available, however, the focus of the market is in pitching and not offense. For starting pitching the likes of Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, and Zack Grinke are available. For the offense the biggest names would be Miguel Montero (C), Mike Napoli (C), Brandon Philips (2B), Josh Hamilton (OF)and our favorite Andre Either (RF).
First let's look at starting pitching. Currently the Dodgers rotation is set as Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsly, Ted Lilly, Aaron Harng, Chris Capuano. Of these Lilly, Harang, and Capuano are all signed through the 2013 season and to make matters worse, all three contracts are end loaded. In 2013, Lilly will earn 12 million, Harang, 7 million, and Capuano 6 million. Now in order to sign any new starting pitching the Dodgers will need to release or trade a pitcher, and considering how much is owed to these pitchers the Dodgers will also need to pick up some of their tab in order to trade them. My guess is that Harang, or Capuano can be traded, however 4 million of Harang's, and 3 million of Capuano's contract would need to be picked up in order to make a move. Basically it comes down to the question of is Kastan willing to pay a couple million to open up a rotation spot and get a low level prospect.
Now onto position players, and possibly the more depressing part of this post. For next season the open positions (assuming Rivera's option isn't picked up) are 1st base, left field and right field. Catcher can also be considered a place for upgrade as AJ Ellis (despite how much I like the guy) profiles out as a strong backup catcher. This mean that even if David Wright's $16 million option is not picked up by the Mets (making him the best 3rd baseman available), the Dodgers would have no room for him, unless they can unload Uribe and the 8 million he's owed, or relegate his 8 million dollar butt to the bench. This same situation can be seen at 2nd base as well, where Brandon Philips is available, however in order to make space for him, Mark Ellis and the 5 million owed to him would need to be traded, and I just can't see there being a lot of interest in a 35 year old glove first second baseman. As for filling the openings available, picking up Montero and Napoli could be a wise and solid investment. Since Napoli can play both catcher and 1st, his signing in addition to Napoli, would allow for Napoli to catch on Montero's days off. Adding the two would bring two solid bats on each side of the plate, Napoli having a career line of 264/259/514 (Avg/OBP/Slg), and Montero's career is 271/338/451. Together they would also provide at least 35 home runs, nearly 20 more than Loney, and AJ Ellis combined. As for the outfield, with the lack of impact free agents available, it would perhaps be in the Dodger's best interest to lock up Andre Eithier. The only other outfield impact bat would be Hamilton, and while his numbers are great, a career 308/366/543, I am cautious as to how his bat will perform outside of the friendly confines of Ranger's Ballpark, and how his off the field issues will effect his on field play.
In conclusion, though I'm excited about the new owners, I'm just not sure how they can turn the Dodgers into a championship team in the next two years, with barely any open positions in which to sign free agents.
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