As we enter a new era for Dodger baseball, one filled with hope and promises from the soon to be owners, we cannot forget that this team is currently chained into mediocrity for the next two years. As shocking as this may seem, especially given Magic, and Kastan's statement that they bought the Dodgers with the intention of winning now, if you look at the current state of the Dodger contracts, things do not look pretty, and the man who set all of this up is Ned Colletti.
Looking towards the 2013 season there are some interesting free agents available, however, the focus of the market is in pitching and not offense. For starting pitching the likes of Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, and Zack Grinke are available. For the offense the biggest names would be Miguel Montero (C), Mike Napoli (C), Brandon Philips (2B), Josh Hamilton (OF)and our favorite Andre Either (RF).
First let's look at starting pitching. Currently the Dodgers rotation is set as Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsly, Ted Lilly, Aaron Harng, Chris Capuano. Of these Lilly, Harang, and Capuano are all signed through the 2013 season and to make matters worse, all three contracts are end loaded. In 2013, Lilly will earn 12 million, Harang, 7 million, and Capuano 6 million. Now in order to sign any new starting pitching the Dodgers will need to release or trade a pitcher, and considering how much is owed to these pitchers the Dodgers will also need to pick up some of their tab in order to trade them. My guess is that Harang, or Capuano can be traded, however 4 million of Harang's, and 3 million of Capuano's contract would need to be picked up in order to make a move. Basically it comes down to the question of is Kastan willing to pay a couple million to open up a rotation spot and get a low level prospect.
Now onto position players, and possibly the more depressing part of this post. For next season the open positions (assuming Rivera's option isn't picked up) are 1st base, left field and right field. Catcher can also be considered a place for upgrade as AJ Ellis (despite how much I like the guy) profiles out as a strong backup catcher. This mean that even if David Wright's $16 million option is not picked up by the Mets (making him the best 3rd baseman available), the Dodgers would have no room for him, unless they can unload Uribe and the 8 million he's owed, or relegate his 8 million dollar butt to the bench. This same situation can be seen at 2nd base as well, where Brandon Philips is available, however in order to make space for him, Mark Ellis and the 5 million owed to him would need to be traded, and I just can't see there being a lot of interest in a 35 year old glove first second baseman. As for filling the openings available, picking up Montero and Napoli could be a wise and solid investment. Since Napoli can play both catcher and 1st, his signing in addition to Napoli, would allow for Napoli to catch on Montero's days off. Adding the two would bring two solid bats on each side of the plate, Napoli having a career line of 264/259/514 (Avg/OBP/Slg), and Montero's career is 271/338/451. Together they would also provide at least 35 home runs, nearly 20 more than Loney, and AJ Ellis combined. As for the outfield, with the lack of impact free agents available, it would perhaps be in the Dodger's best interest to lock up Andre Eithier. The only other outfield impact bat would be Hamilton, and while his numbers are great, a career 308/366/543, I am cautious as to how his bat will perform outside of the friendly confines of Ranger's Ballpark, and how his off the field issues will effect his on field play.
In conclusion, though I'm excited about the new owners, I'm just not sure how they can turn the Dodgers into a championship team in the next two years, with barely any open positions in which to sign free agents.
Showing posts with label Aaron Harang. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Aaron Harang. Show all posts
Thursday, March 29, 2012
Friday, March 16, 2012
Dodgers drop two of the last three
Well I guess the hot start to spring training couldn't last, however as we arrive at the halfway point of the Dodgers Catus League tour the team stands at a respectable 7-3-2. During these starts the Dodger starting pitching, which many believe will be solid, but not a strength, has been strong. Let's go over the five starters and their stats so far this spring.
Clayton Kershaw: 7IP, 4H, 3BB, 6SO, 0ER. Highlights: Strikeing out 6 against the Reds starters, including Votto and Bruce
Chad Billingsley: 8IP, 11H, 3BB, 4SO, 4ER. Highlight: In the last game Bills induce 6 groundouts all from his changeup. Plus he is showing better command at the plate with only 3 walks so far.
Ted Lily: 5IP, 7H, 2BB, 1SO, 5ER. Highlight: Looked very solid for 3 innings against his old team the Cubbies. 1 hit and no runs in 3 innings. As per his normal progression, expect his stuff to get better as the year progresses.
Aaron Harang: 5IP, 7H, 0BB, 2SO, 3ER. Highlights: Against the slugger laiden Angels lineup, Harang gave up no free passes, 1 earned run, and had 2 strike outs in 3 innings. A solid start.
Chris Capuano: 4.2IP, 4H, 2BB, 7SO, 2ER. Highlights: Capuano is leading the team in strikeouts right now despite having the fewest innings. Looks like last years 8.1 SO/9 wasn't a fluke.
In all the starters look solid, and seem to be getting better. Adding together each starters last game, they allowed only 4 earned runs. Assuming Kershaw can win 20, and the rest of the starters when averaged together average 10 wins (or 40 wins all together) that put the Starters in line to win at least 60 games, only one less than Kershaw, Kuroda, Lily, Bills, and Rubby put up last year. Also with the solid bullpen that is forming there is no reason why the Dodgers can work another 22 or more wins after the starters are knocked out. Even though the Dodgers starting staff will most likely allow the most home runs out of any staff in baseball, look for them to also lead the league in fewest free passes and for all 5 starteres to have a sub 4.3 ERA by the end of the season and possibly beat last years staff ERA of 3.8.
On another note Dee Gordon had one of the most amazing steals that I've ever seen yesterday. Despite most analyst throwing Dee to the dogs, stating that he: "Does not hit the ball with authority", "One of the weakest hitters in the majors","Can't hit the ball out of the infield","light hitter". Despite all this Dee has been putting up great numbers so far this spring. So far in 18 at bats he has 5 hits for a 278 average, not great. But despite all the complaints about Dee not walking he also has 4 walks and only 1 strikeout to make his on base a very fun 435. In addition he is 5 of 5 for stolen bases. Despite every analyst coming up and saying Dee will be a big flop due to his lack of power, it has been clear that pitchers are afraid, of his speed, and it effects the way they pitch to him, leading to more walks. There is no better example of this than the Dodgers three run first inning against Jared Weaver and the Angels. Weaver was clearly disturbed by Gordon's first pitch bunt single, and then became even more aggitated when Dee stole second, leading to mistake pitches and doubles by Either and Rivera. Also in the last game, Dee's stolen base before even allowing a pitch to be thrown to Jerry Hairston, suprised and unsettled KC prospect Danny Duffy who then allowed 2 earned runs in the first. In fact, of the 8 games that Dee has started, he has scored a run in the first inning in 4 of them. Of Dee's 9 times that he has been on base, he has scored a run 5 times. Despite his lack of power, it cannot be denied that Dee's speed is a dangerous tool that allows for him to not just get on base, but score runs.
Clayton Kershaw: 7IP, 4H, 3BB, 6SO, 0ER. Highlights: Strikeing out 6 against the Reds starters, including Votto and Bruce
Chad Billingsley: 8IP, 11H, 3BB, 4SO, 4ER. Highlight: In the last game Bills induce 6 groundouts all from his changeup. Plus he is showing better command at the plate with only 3 walks so far.
Ted Lily: 5IP, 7H, 2BB, 1SO, 5ER. Highlight: Looked very solid for 3 innings against his old team the Cubbies. 1 hit and no runs in 3 innings. As per his normal progression, expect his stuff to get better as the year progresses.
Aaron Harang: 5IP, 7H, 0BB, 2SO, 3ER. Highlights: Against the slugger laiden Angels lineup, Harang gave up no free passes, 1 earned run, and had 2 strike outs in 3 innings. A solid start.
Chris Capuano: 4.2IP, 4H, 2BB, 7SO, 2ER. Highlights: Capuano is leading the team in strikeouts right now despite having the fewest innings. Looks like last years 8.1 SO/9 wasn't a fluke.
In all the starters look solid, and seem to be getting better. Adding together each starters last game, they allowed only 4 earned runs. Assuming Kershaw can win 20, and the rest of the starters when averaged together average 10 wins (or 40 wins all together) that put the Starters in line to win at least 60 games, only one less than Kershaw, Kuroda, Lily, Bills, and Rubby put up last year. Also with the solid bullpen that is forming there is no reason why the Dodgers can work another 22 or more wins after the starters are knocked out. Even though the Dodgers starting staff will most likely allow the most home runs out of any staff in baseball, look for them to also lead the league in fewest free passes and for all 5 starteres to have a sub 4.3 ERA by the end of the season and possibly beat last years staff ERA of 3.8.
On another note Dee Gordon had one of the most amazing steals that I've ever seen yesterday. Despite most analyst throwing Dee to the dogs, stating that he: "Does not hit the ball with authority", "One of the weakest hitters in the majors","Can't hit the ball out of the infield","light hitter". Despite all this Dee has been putting up great numbers so far this spring. So far in 18 at bats he has 5 hits for a 278 average, not great. But despite all the complaints about Dee not walking he also has 4 walks and only 1 strikeout to make his on base a very fun 435. In addition he is 5 of 5 for stolen bases. Despite every analyst coming up and saying Dee will be a big flop due to his lack of power, it has been clear that pitchers are afraid, of his speed, and it effects the way they pitch to him, leading to more walks. There is no better example of this than the Dodgers three run first inning against Jared Weaver and the Angels. Weaver was clearly disturbed by Gordon's first pitch bunt single, and then became even more aggitated when Dee stole second, leading to mistake pitches and doubles by Either and Rivera. Also in the last game, Dee's stolen base before even allowing a pitch to be thrown to Jerry Hairston, suprised and unsettled KC prospect Danny Duffy who then allowed 2 earned runs in the first. In fact, of the 8 games that Dee has started, he has scored a run in the first inning in 4 of them. Of Dee's 9 times that he has been on base, he has scored a run 5 times. Despite his lack of power, it cannot be denied that Dee's speed is a dangerous tool that allows for him to not just get on base, but score runs.
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