As we enter a new era for Dodger baseball, one filled with hope and promises from the soon to be owners, we cannot forget that this team is currently chained into mediocrity for the next two years. As shocking as this may seem, especially given Magic, and Kastan's statement that they bought the Dodgers with the intention of winning now, if you look at the current state of the Dodger contracts, things do not look pretty, and the man who set all of this up is Ned Colletti.
Looking towards the 2013 season there are some interesting free agents available, however, the focus of the market is in pitching and not offense. For starting pitching the likes of Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, and Zack Grinke are available. For the offense the biggest names would be Miguel Montero (C), Mike Napoli (C), Brandon Philips (2B), Josh Hamilton (OF)and our favorite Andre Either (RF).
First let's look at starting pitching. Currently the Dodgers rotation is set as Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsly, Ted Lilly, Aaron Harng, Chris Capuano. Of these Lilly, Harang, and Capuano are all signed through the 2013 season and to make matters worse, all three contracts are end loaded. In 2013, Lilly will earn 12 million, Harang, 7 million, and Capuano 6 million. Now in order to sign any new starting pitching the Dodgers will need to release or trade a pitcher, and considering how much is owed to these pitchers the Dodgers will also need to pick up some of their tab in order to trade them. My guess is that Harang, or Capuano can be traded, however 4 million of Harang's, and 3 million of Capuano's contract would need to be picked up in order to make a move. Basically it comes down to the question of is Kastan willing to pay a couple million to open up a rotation spot and get a low level prospect.
Now onto position players, and possibly the more depressing part of this post. For next season the open positions (assuming Rivera's option isn't picked up) are 1st base, left field and right field. Catcher can also be considered a place for upgrade as AJ Ellis (despite how much I like the guy) profiles out as a strong backup catcher. This mean that even if David Wright's $16 million option is not picked up by the Mets (making him the best 3rd baseman available), the Dodgers would have no room for him, unless they can unload Uribe and the 8 million he's owed, or relegate his 8 million dollar butt to the bench. This same situation can be seen at 2nd base as well, where Brandon Philips is available, however in order to make space for him, Mark Ellis and the 5 million owed to him would need to be traded, and I just can't see there being a lot of interest in a 35 year old glove first second baseman. As for filling the openings available, picking up Montero and Napoli could be a wise and solid investment. Since Napoli can play both catcher and 1st, his signing in addition to Napoli, would allow for Napoli to catch on Montero's days off. Adding the two would bring two solid bats on each side of the plate, Napoli having a career line of 264/259/514 (Avg/OBP/Slg), and Montero's career is 271/338/451. Together they would also provide at least 35 home runs, nearly 20 more than Loney, and AJ Ellis combined. As for the outfield, with the lack of impact free agents available, it would perhaps be in the Dodger's best interest to lock up Andre Eithier. The only other outfield impact bat would be Hamilton, and while his numbers are great, a career 308/366/543, I am cautious as to how his bat will perform outside of the friendly confines of Ranger's Ballpark, and how his off the field issues will effect his on field play.
In conclusion, though I'm excited about the new owners, I'm just not sure how they can turn the Dodgers into a championship team in the next two years, with barely any open positions in which to sign free agents.
Thursday, March 29, 2012
Tuesday, March 27, 2012
Opening day roster just about finished
This morning the Dodgers opening day roster became a little clearer as Jamey Wright was officially moved to the 40 man roster this morning. The corresponding move to this was moving Blake Hawksworth to the 60 day DL. This also prompted John Grabow to leave camp looking for work on a big league roster. While some may be sad to see the 33 year old left hander leave, as it means Elbert will be the only lefty on the opening day roster, history has shown that Grabow is not a lefty only specialist as right-handers are hitting 263 against him, and left-handers are hitting 262. Plus the Dodgers have two other young(er) lefty relievers in long shot Scott Rice, who has been very effective, and Matt Chico, both of whom have options, and can be brought up and sent down though out the year if added to the 40 man roster.
So as of now the roster shapes up with :
Starters (4/5): Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsly, Aaron Harang, and Chris Capuano. Ted Lilly we all know will be the number 3, but with his neck stiffness he might be moved to the DL and skipped for a start to allow for an extra player to be put on the 25 man roster.
Starters (8): C AJ Ellis, 1B James Loney, 2B Mark Ellis, 3B Juan Uribe, SS Dee Gordon, LF Juan Rivera, CF Matt Kemp, RF Andre Either.
Bullpen (7): Todd Coffey, Mike MacDougal, Scott Elbert, Javy Guerra, Kenley Jansen, Jamey Wright, Matt Guerrier. This also has Blake Hawksworth on the 60 day DL and Ronald Belisario on the suspended list. Both guys could come back mid-season to bolster the bullpen
Bench (4-6): Tony Gywnn Jr, Adam Kennedy, Jerry Hairston Jr, Matt Treanor. At the moment the last bench spot, once thought to be Jerry Sands, is open as Sands was sent to the minor league camp today. This leave Josh Fields, Luis Cruz, and Justin Sellers in the hunt for the last bench spot. With Fields potential pop I see him as the favorite, especially considering that Mattingly has said he prefers having a right-hander with pop on the bench. Sellers would be my number two due to his defensive prowess, and spring performance, however with options, I don't see him getting the opening day nod. This leave Luis Cruz. Cruz like Sellers can play short (though his defense is not as sharp), but with no options left I see Cruz getting an extended look as Lilly is placed on the DL to skip his first start of the season.
One more note. It's not that I hate Juan Uribe, but one of my hopes for this season is that Mattingly keeps the free swinger on a short leash. Especially since Fields has shown good growth during his short time as a journey-man. Watching Fields' at bats this spring he has shown patience and a solid swing, working the count full many times, and fowling off a number of pitches till finding one he likes. This certainly differs from Uribe's 3 swings and out approach. Though the 8 million would be a tough pill to to swallow for a bench bat and utility player, I think the Dodgers would be a better club for playing Fields as the everyday 3B. Thus, as stated before, I hope Mattingly keeps Uribe on a short, short leash so that we may see him benched and Fields produce.
Friday, March 16, 2012
Dodgers drop two of the last three
Well I guess the hot start to spring training couldn't last, however as we arrive at the halfway point of the Dodgers Catus League tour the team stands at a respectable 7-3-2. During these starts the Dodger starting pitching, which many believe will be solid, but not a strength, has been strong. Let's go over the five starters and their stats so far this spring.
Clayton Kershaw: 7IP, 4H, 3BB, 6SO, 0ER. Highlights: Strikeing out 6 against the Reds starters, including Votto and Bruce
Chad Billingsley: 8IP, 11H, 3BB, 4SO, 4ER. Highlight: In the last game Bills induce 6 groundouts all from his changeup. Plus he is showing better command at the plate with only 3 walks so far.
Ted Lily: 5IP, 7H, 2BB, 1SO, 5ER. Highlight: Looked very solid for 3 innings against his old team the Cubbies. 1 hit and no runs in 3 innings. As per his normal progression, expect his stuff to get better as the year progresses.
Aaron Harang: 5IP, 7H, 0BB, 2SO, 3ER. Highlights: Against the slugger laiden Angels lineup, Harang gave up no free passes, 1 earned run, and had 2 strike outs in 3 innings. A solid start.
Chris Capuano: 4.2IP, 4H, 2BB, 7SO, 2ER. Highlights: Capuano is leading the team in strikeouts right now despite having the fewest innings. Looks like last years 8.1 SO/9 wasn't a fluke.
In all the starters look solid, and seem to be getting better. Adding together each starters last game, they allowed only 4 earned runs. Assuming Kershaw can win 20, and the rest of the starters when averaged together average 10 wins (or 40 wins all together) that put the Starters in line to win at least 60 games, only one less than Kershaw, Kuroda, Lily, Bills, and Rubby put up last year. Also with the solid bullpen that is forming there is no reason why the Dodgers can work another 22 or more wins after the starters are knocked out. Even though the Dodgers starting staff will most likely allow the most home runs out of any staff in baseball, look for them to also lead the league in fewest free passes and for all 5 starteres to have a sub 4.3 ERA by the end of the season and possibly beat last years staff ERA of 3.8.
On another note Dee Gordon had one of the most amazing steals that I've ever seen yesterday. Despite most analyst throwing Dee to the dogs, stating that he: "Does not hit the ball with authority", "One of the weakest hitters in the majors","Can't hit the ball out of the infield","light hitter". Despite all this Dee has been putting up great numbers so far this spring. So far in 18 at bats he has 5 hits for a 278 average, not great. But despite all the complaints about Dee not walking he also has 4 walks and only 1 strikeout to make his on base a very fun 435. In addition he is 5 of 5 for stolen bases. Despite every analyst coming up and saying Dee will be a big flop due to his lack of power, it has been clear that pitchers are afraid, of his speed, and it effects the way they pitch to him, leading to more walks. There is no better example of this than the Dodgers three run first inning against Jared Weaver and the Angels. Weaver was clearly disturbed by Gordon's first pitch bunt single, and then became even more aggitated when Dee stole second, leading to mistake pitches and doubles by Either and Rivera. Also in the last game, Dee's stolen base before even allowing a pitch to be thrown to Jerry Hairston, suprised and unsettled KC prospect Danny Duffy who then allowed 2 earned runs in the first. In fact, of the 8 games that Dee has started, he has scored a run in the first inning in 4 of them. Of Dee's 9 times that he has been on base, he has scored a run 5 times. Despite his lack of power, it cannot be denied that Dee's speed is a dangerous tool that allows for him to not just get on base, but score runs.
Clayton Kershaw: 7IP, 4H, 3BB, 6SO, 0ER. Highlights: Strikeing out 6 against the Reds starters, including Votto and Bruce
Chad Billingsley: 8IP, 11H, 3BB, 4SO, 4ER. Highlight: In the last game Bills induce 6 groundouts all from his changeup. Plus he is showing better command at the plate with only 3 walks so far.
Ted Lily: 5IP, 7H, 2BB, 1SO, 5ER. Highlight: Looked very solid for 3 innings against his old team the Cubbies. 1 hit and no runs in 3 innings. As per his normal progression, expect his stuff to get better as the year progresses.
Aaron Harang: 5IP, 7H, 0BB, 2SO, 3ER. Highlights: Against the slugger laiden Angels lineup, Harang gave up no free passes, 1 earned run, and had 2 strike outs in 3 innings. A solid start.
Chris Capuano: 4.2IP, 4H, 2BB, 7SO, 2ER. Highlights: Capuano is leading the team in strikeouts right now despite having the fewest innings. Looks like last years 8.1 SO/9 wasn't a fluke.
In all the starters look solid, and seem to be getting better. Adding together each starters last game, they allowed only 4 earned runs. Assuming Kershaw can win 20, and the rest of the starters when averaged together average 10 wins (or 40 wins all together) that put the Starters in line to win at least 60 games, only one less than Kershaw, Kuroda, Lily, Bills, and Rubby put up last year. Also with the solid bullpen that is forming there is no reason why the Dodgers can work another 22 or more wins after the starters are knocked out. Even though the Dodgers starting staff will most likely allow the most home runs out of any staff in baseball, look for them to also lead the league in fewest free passes and for all 5 starteres to have a sub 4.3 ERA by the end of the season and possibly beat last years staff ERA of 3.8.
On another note Dee Gordon had one of the most amazing steals that I've ever seen yesterday. Despite most analyst throwing Dee to the dogs, stating that he: "Does not hit the ball with authority", "One of the weakest hitters in the majors","Can't hit the ball out of the infield","light hitter". Despite all this Dee has been putting up great numbers so far this spring. So far in 18 at bats he has 5 hits for a 278 average, not great. But despite all the complaints about Dee not walking he also has 4 walks and only 1 strikeout to make his on base a very fun 435. In addition he is 5 of 5 for stolen bases. Despite every analyst coming up and saying Dee will be a big flop due to his lack of power, it has been clear that pitchers are afraid, of his speed, and it effects the way they pitch to him, leading to more walks. There is no better example of this than the Dodgers three run first inning against Jared Weaver and the Angels. Weaver was clearly disturbed by Gordon's first pitch bunt single, and then became even more aggitated when Dee stole second, leading to mistake pitches and doubles by Either and Rivera. Also in the last game, Dee's stolen base before even allowing a pitch to be thrown to Jerry Hairston, suprised and unsettled KC prospect Danny Duffy who then allowed 2 earned runs in the first. In fact, of the 8 games that Dee has started, he has scored a run in the first inning in 4 of them. Of Dee's 9 times that he has been on base, he has scored a run 5 times. Despite his lack of power, it cannot be denied that Dee's speed is a dangerous tool that allows for him to not just get on base, but score runs.
Friday, March 9, 2012
Another Solid W in the Books
Wow, two solid days of ball by the Dodgers, and now I have a lot to get caught up on.
I guess first we should start with the top of the lineup and Dee Gordon. Going into this spring there were many questions about Dee's ability to take a walk, and how that would reflect on his OBP. We were terrified when Dee stated "In reality, I can hit. So it helps me to be ready to swing and not look for a walk. I could always hit the ball", and yet he has already walked 3 times in less than a dozen plate appearences. It seems that the slight shortstop can't wait to watch analyst put their foot in their mouth as he sets himself up with a solid OBP through hitting and taking walks.
The next starter in the lineup who is showing his swag would be Matt Kemp. After seeing the first few games I started biting my nails, worrying about each at bat as Kemp took long hacks at his Kryptonite, the low and away slider. In his first three games, and nine at bats, Kemp struck out 5 times, almost all of these on sliders low and away. Today though, things were different. Today he had a single, sac fly, and one of his sky high rainbow home runs that just never comes down. Not only that, in his at bats today, the slider that was the thorn in his side before seemed to not be a problem as he laid off them today. My hope is that the first few days Kemp was just testing out which pitches he could hit, and which he couldn't and for the rest of the year he'll lay off the slider low and away.
Andre Either also continued his torrid hitting, grabbing himself a single and a triple. If there were any worries about him not coming back heathy from knee surgury, his base running has put those to rest. And even though we joke about the defense Either puts up in right, with two healthy legs this year, we may even see the tempermental lefty put up a better UZR this year.
The last starter I want to address is AJ Ellis who has also been laughing in the face of his critics. So far this spring AJ has had eight plate appearences with two hits and two walks. For those who were worried that his lack of power would keep him from getting walks, his two hits were both doubles including the one today that flew over the head of Josh Hamilton in center.
Overall four of the eight starters have impressed me so far this spring, and I have to give kudo's to Dave Hanson and his coaching as the Dodger bats look patient and lively so far this spring.
Now onto the guys who aren't going to make the team, but are still being impressive.
The first guy I want to talk about is Justin Sellers, and what a great grinder and ball player he looks to be. When I first saw him play at Dodger Stadium last year I imediately loved his glove, and figured he would be Juan Castro 2.0. But so far he has exceeded my expectations shown real growth as a ball player. All week when he has been playing, people have commented on the fact that a guy with such a small frame swing the bat with his hands at the end of the handle. But they have also noticed that much like Jamey Carrol (who we can't deny was a OBP machine), Sellers will with two strikes will choke up on the bat to improve bat control. Right now in 11 plate appearences, Sellers has 4 hits and 2 walks. With his glove I'd be tempted to give Sellers the everyday 2B position right now, because his glove is just as good as Mark Ellis' and his OBP looks like it could project to be similar to Jamey Carrol's .360, an upgrade from Ellis' career .330 OBP mark.
Also impressing this spring is Josh Fields having 5 hits in 7 at bats including a triple and two doubles. Right now he is showing a swing that made him a first round pick for the White Sox in 04' and helped him hit .365 in 50 games in the Pacific Coast League last year. though he hasn't walked much it seems like he is not getting fooled, and is making solid contact.
Last on this list is Alex Castellanos, whose new nick name seems to be Castle. The former Cardinal who was drafted to play the infield, moved to the outfield, and has now come back to the infield has been on fire this spring. Right now in 7 at bats he has 4 hits including 2 home runs. The most impressive thing so far about his swing is his bat speed, which sends the bat head flying through the air, making his hits laser beams. If he can work on his patience at the plate to draw more walks and strike out less he could be a very potent hitter, especially if he stays at 2B.
A last quick note on hitters, Griff Erikson has 3 at bats and 2 hits, with a double. It looks like his offense may not be an illusion.
At this point, I'm actually more excited about the Dodgers AAA team then the Major league team. Right now with FedEx, and JD Closser catching, Sands at 1B, Castellanos at 2B, Sellers at SS, Josh Fields at 3B, and an outfield of Scott Van Slyke, Matt Angle, and Cory Sullivan, they are practically a Quad A team, and could most likely beat some major league teams, like the Astro's or Mariners. If I were in charge I'd take a long look at some of these guys to enhance the Dodger offense (if Colletti had not blocked them with multi year deals), and for things to be done sooner rather than later, as many of them are getting a little to old to still be prospects (Fields is 29, Sellers is 26, Van Slyke and Castellanos are both 25)
Also quick note on the pitching: starters seem ok, the bullpen looks to be awesome. I'd look for Scott Rice to possibly be picked up as a second lefty reliever after the spring he's been putting up.
I guess first we should start with the top of the lineup and Dee Gordon. Going into this spring there were many questions about Dee's ability to take a walk, and how that would reflect on his OBP. We were terrified when Dee stated "In reality, I can hit. So it helps me to be ready to swing and not look for a walk. I could always hit the ball", and yet he has already walked 3 times in less than a dozen plate appearences. It seems that the slight shortstop can't wait to watch analyst put their foot in their mouth as he sets himself up with a solid OBP through hitting and taking walks.
The next starter in the lineup who is showing his swag would be Matt Kemp. After seeing the first few games I started biting my nails, worrying about each at bat as Kemp took long hacks at his Kryptonite, the low and away slider. In his first three games, and nine at bats, Kemp struck out 5 times, almost all of these on sliders low and away. Today though, things were different. Today he had a single, sac fly, and one of his sky high rainbow home runs that just never comes down. Not only that, in his at bats today, the slider that was the thorn in his side before seemed to not be a problem as he laid off them today. My hope is that the first few days Kemp was just testing out which pitches he could hit, and which he couldn't and for the rest of the year he'll lay off the slider low and away.
Andre Either also continued his torrid hitting, grabbing himself a single and a triple. If there were any worries about him not coming back heathy from knee surgury, his base running has put those to rest. And even though we joke about the defense Either puts up in right, with two healthy legs this year, we may even see the tempermental lefty put up a better UZR this year.
The last starter I want to address is AJ Ellis who has also been laughing in the face of his critics. So far this spring AJ has had eight plate appearences with two hits and two walks. For those who were worried that his lack of power would keep him from getting walks, his two hits were both doubles including the one today that flew over the head of Josh Hamilton in center.
Overall four of the eight starters have impressed me so far this spring, and I have to give kudo's to Dave Hanson and his coaching as the Dodger bats look patient and lively so far this spring.
Now onto the guys who aren't going to make the team, but are still being impressive.
The first guy I want to talk about is Justin Sellers, and what a great grinder and ball player he looks to be. When I first saw him play at Dodger Stadium last year I imediately loved his glove, and figured he would be Juan Castro 2.0. But so far he has exceeded my expectations shown real growth as a ball player. All week when he has been playing, people have commented on the fact that a guy with such a small frame swing the bat with his hands at the end of the handle. But they have also noticed that much like Jamey Carrol (who we can't deny was a OBP machine), Sellers will with two strikes will choke up on the bat to improve bat control. Right now in 11 plate appearences, Sellers has 4 hits and 2 walks. With his glove I'd be tempted to give Sellers the everyday 2B position right now, because his glove is just as good as Mark Ellis' and his OBP looks like it could project to be similar to Jamey Carrol's .360, an upgrade from Ellis' career .330 OBP mark.
Also impressing this spring is Josh Fields having 5 hits in 7 at bats including a triple and two doubles. Right now he is showing a swing that made him a first round pick for the White Sox in 04' and helped him hit .365 in 50 games in the Pacific Coast League last year. though he hasn't walked much it seems like he is not getting fooled, and is making solid contact.
Last on this list is Alex Castellanos, whose new nick name seems to be Castle. The former Cardinal who was drafted to play the infield, moved to the outfield, and has now come back to the infield has been on fire this spring. Right now in 7 at bats he has 4 hits including 2 home runs. The most impressive thing so far about his swing is his bat speed, which sends the bat head flying through the air, making his hits laser beams. If he can work on his patience at the plate to draw more walks and strike out less he could be a very potent hitter, especially if he stays at 2B.
A last quick note on hitters, Griff Erikson has 3 at bats and 2 hits, with a double. It looks like his offense may not be an illusion.
At this point, I'm actually more excited about the Dodgers AAA team then the Major league team. Right now with FedEx, and JD Closser catching, Sands at 1B, Castellanos at 2B, Sellers at SS, Josh Fields at 3B, and an outfield of Scott Van Slyke, Matt Angle, and Cory Sullivan, they are practically a Quad A team, and could most likely beat some major league teams, like the Astro's or Mariners. If I were in charge I'd take a long look at some of these guys to enhance the Dodger offense (if Colletti had not blocked them with multi year deals), and for things to be done sooner rather than later, as many of them are getting a little to old to still be prospects (Fields is 29, Sellers is 26, Van Slyke and Castellanos are both 25)
Also quick note on the pitching: starters seem ok, the bullpen looks to be awesome. I'd look for Scott Rice to possibly be picked up as a second lefty reliever after the spring he's been putting up.
Monday, March 5, 2012
Dodger's Minor Victory
Hooray! Today was the first day of spring ball, and despite all the worries about offense, the Dodgers won the game with a 5 run 6th inning. Unfortunately that offense was put together by the minor league players and not the Dodger regulars. As for pitching, the first two innings saw a good outing from Billingsley, as only Alexi Ramirez was able to get a hit off of him with a line drive that dropped in front of Juan Rivera in left. The other six batters looked slow to recognize pitch location as they tried to shake off their winter rust. For as "flat" as the Chicago offense looked, the Dodger's regulars for the most part looked the same. Mark Ellis, AJ Ellis, and Matt Kemp all put up some decently long at bats, which the announcers called "professional". Andre gave me some hope that he would have a good season when he hit a fly ball to right during his first at bat and showed decent speed legging to hit out to a double. AJ Ellis also hit a nice double the other way to right field with Loney on, unfortunately Loney tried to score from first, and was cut down by a great relay from Fukudome to Beckham to the plate. Overall not a bad performance by the regulars for the first spring training game, but also nothing to be excited about either.
Onto the Minor league players. After a great first inning in relief, where he struck out two, Eovaldi showed some control problems in his second inning. Eovaldi walked two in a row, (they were Konerko and Dunn in his defense) but it led to him becoming a little unraveled. Eovaldi has great stuff, but I'm starting to think that one more season in the minors, to grasp some better control and poise on the mound may not be a bad thing for him. Now for the real exciting part; to open up the sixth inning Gywnn hit a solid single right up the middle. He then took advantage of a rookie mistake by the pitcher (he took way to long to the plate) and stole 2nd by a wide margin. Gwynn even had enough time to do a foot first slide instead of head first. Then Justin Sellers in his first at bat of the spring, showed poise and baseball knowledge. with a runner on second he slapped the ball the other way and hit the ball into the corner, scoring Gwynn. Sellers had the chance to stretch the play into a triple, but with no outs, and remembering how Loney was thrown out at home by Fukudome an inning earlier, he played things smart, and showed patience holding at second. Then Ivan Dejesus with a runner on second, showed solid baseball knowledge slapping another hit into the right field corner to score Sellers. Then I'm going to give Sellers another kudos as he could be seen moving from 3rd to home, waving Dejesus on to third. It's great that Sellers, was not only worried about himself, but kept an eye out for his teammate, giving another pair of eyes on the field to let the runner know where the ball is. After a strike out by Trent Oeltjen, prospect Scott Van Slyke was up. At 6'5" Van Slyke is a big man in the box, and he almost looks uncomfortable standing very tall at the plate. But despite his awkward stance, his swing looks smooth as silk. On a letter high fastball Scott uncoiled and blasted a 400+ line-drive past the left field wall. As soon as the laser beam came off his bat, the only question in spectators minds was how far away would the ball land. So for all the worries about Van Slyke's age, his power looks to be real. Assuming he can show poise and control at the plate, the Van Slyke's may be soon become a two generation major league family.
In summary, the regulars looked just about that, regular. The minor leaguers had some interesting at bats, but, unfortunately there are no spots to play for on the major league roster, we can hope maybe some injuries will open up some chances, but it's unlikely. It's sad to see a franchise, once praised for it's great minor league system, stifle it's homegrown talent so completely.
Onto the Minor league players. After a great first inning in relief, where he struck out two, Eovaldi showed some control problems in his second inning. Eovaldi walked two in a row, (they were Konerko and Dunn in his defense) but it led to him becoming a little unraveled. Eovaldi has great stuff, but I'm starting to think that one more season in the minors, to grasp some better control and poise on the mound may not be a bad thing for him. Now for the real exciting part; to open up the sixth inning Gywnn hit a solid single right up the middle. He then took advantage of a rookie mistake by the pitcher (he took way to long to the plate) and stole 2nd by a wide margin. Gwynn even had enough time to do a foot first slide instead of head first. Then Justin Sellers in his first at bat of the spring, showed poise and baseball knowledge. with a runner on second he slapped the ball the other way and hit the ball into the corner, scoring Gwynn. Sellers had the chance to stretch the play into a triple, but with no outs, and remembering how Loney was thrown out at home by Fukudome an inning earlier, he played things smart, and showed patience holding at second. Then Ivan Dejesus with a runner on second, showed solid baseball knowledge slapping another hit into the right field corner to score Sellers. Then I'm going to give Sellers another kudos as he could be seen moving from 3rd to home, waving Dejesus on to third. It's great that Sellers, was not only worried about himself, but kept an eye out for his teammate, giving another pair of eyes on the field to let the runner know where the ball is. After a strike out by Trent Oeltjen, prospect Scott Van Slyke was up. At 6'5" Van Slyke is a big man in the box, and he almost looks uncomfortable standing very tall at the plate. But despite his awkward stance, his swing looks smooth as silk. On a letter high fastball Scott uncoiled and blasted a 400+ line-drive past the left field wall. As soon as the laser beam came off his bat, the only question in spectators minds was how far away would the ball land. So for all the worries about Van Slyke's age, his power looks to be real. Assuming he can show poise and control at the plate, the Van Slyke's may be soon become a two generation major league family.
In summary, the regulars looked just about that, regular. The minor leaguers had some interesting at bats, but, unfortunately there are no spots to play for on the major league roster, we can hope maybe some injuries will open up some chances, but it's unlikely. It's sad to see a franchise, once praised for it's great minor league system, stifle it's homegrown talent so completely.
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
Spring Training Wishful Thinking
Well here it is the first official day of spring training, as pitchers and catchers are reporting to camp. Despite how the roster looks, as Tony Jackson stated in his new Dodger blog at ESPN, there's always hope, and things could look worse.
For the good news from Mattingly today,
1. Dee Gordon will bat leadoff. While many are worried about his ability to take walks, I believe that his patience will grow as he sees more major league pitching (remember Dee is still fairly new to playing baseball), plus his plus plus speed makes even routine grounders possible infield hits. If he can learn to add bunting to his batting approach expect him to have a great season.
2. Matt Kemp will bat third. This is also good news as Matt Kemp (hard to believe with the season he had) actually preformed better hitting in the three hole, using Either for protection. At 3 Kemp hit 331/418/647 (BA/OBP/SLG), vs 322/394/569 in the 4 hole. While he hits great in both places, the protection of Ethier helps Kemp recieve a more steady diet of fastballs and pitches in the zone. Also with Ethier behind Kemp, it leaves more room for Kemp to run wild on the bases. (With Ethier healthy expect this to be billed like the Braun and Fielder duo of last season.
3. Blake Hawksworth will be starting the season on the DL. It seems weird to take this as good news, but Hawksworth while being satisfactory, he was far from being excellent out of the pen. According to Baseball Reference the Hawk appeared in a high leverage situation in 17 games. In those games batters hit 375 with an OPS of 932. For comparison Jansen appeared in 20 games and held batters to a 116 batting average. In fact by the end of the season he had been relagated mostly to cleanup duty. So the silver lining of this is that depsite Ned's best efforts to block any changes Mattingly may want to make to the roster, Donnie Baseball will get the chance to go fishing in his large, but shallow pool of pitching talent invited to camp. (My bet is on Jamey Wright)
So team positives going into 2012, despite a lack of a proven #2 starter, the starting rotation is deep and decent as all five are established starters. The bullpen looks to be solid with Jansen, Guerra, Elbert, Coffey, and good backup arms in the minors with Eovaldi and Lindblom. Matt Kemp will be coming back, and Andre should be healthy. And Kemp's work ethic from last season seems to have paid off, as a number of Dodger's decided to show up early to camp (Kemp, Gordon, Ellis, Kershaw, Sellers)
Now even though the Dodger infield should be very slick with a glove, we can all agree that their offensive production is going to be equivilent to the amount of wind produced by a butterfly flapping it's wings. Plus with Ned "head up my a**" Colletti at the helm there has only been one spot left on the roster for a non roster invitee, or a minor league player to make the squad. Essentialy there is one spot and fifteen players trying out for it.
So barring injury who gets the spot. Seems to me, despite Sands massive numbers when coming back up for his second drink of coffee with the big team (342 BA and 908 OPS) Dodger management thinks he doesn't have enough seasoning. Since Sands projects to be an everyday, he will most likly start the season in AAA so he doesn't have to sit on a bench. Also with Ned's signings, there is a clear lack of a backup SS in case Dee goes down with an injury. As none of the NRI's strike me as a good backup infielder, my guess is that Sellers will find himself on the major league roster leaving camp.
Now for the wishful thinking aspect. With Kennedy's nearly minimal 800k contract we could all hope that he preforms pitifully enough that they DFA him before camp is over. That opens up one more roster spot. Currently I'm torn between NRI's Jeff Baisley and Josh Fields. Both men are over the hill in prospect terms at 29 (in fact Fields is just 4 days older than Baisley), however, at under 30 and playing the hot corners, both could add value for the Dodgers. Baisley has spent the last 8 years in the A's farm system. He hits for good average and hits for decent power as he hit 20 HR's in the minors last year, but has only played 14 games at the major league level. Baisley also has a good glove at first and third as well. Fields, does not have good fielding (despite his last name), but has shown great power, as he was onced ranked a top 50 prospect in 2007, and hit 23 HR's in the majors the same year. He has an OBP problem, but could have melowed out in his last couple of years floating back and forth between the majors and minors. If there were ever a Quad A player it might be Fields as he enjoyed a 350+ BA his last two seasons in the minors, but has yet to fully translate that in the majors. He could be a very interesting risk, and truthfully, could he be worse than Uribe was last year...?
The rest of my wishes depend on players getting injured in Spring training so that some prospects can play, and since it involves people getting hurt, I'm not gonna say it out loud. In conclusion I will leave you with a slight positive note about Colletti. Despite his major league signing's being aweful this year (minus the Kemp extension), at least he's getting some interesting NRI to camp.
For the good news from Mattingly today,
1. Dee Gordon will bat leadoff. While many are worried about his ability to take walks, I believe that his patience will grow as he sees more major league pitching (remember Dee is still fairly new to playing baseball), plus his plus plus speed makes even routine grounders possible infield hits. If he can learn to add bunting to his batting approach expect him to have a great season.
2. Matt Kemp will bat third. This is also good news as Matt Kemp (hard to believe with the season he had) actually preformed better hitting in the three hole, using Either for protection. At 3 Kemp hit 331/418/647 (BA/OBP/SLG), vs 322/394/569 in the 4 hole. While he hits great in both places, the protection of Ethier helps Kemp recieve a more steady diet of fastballs and pitches in the zone. Also with Ethier behind Kemp, it leaves more room for Kemp to run wild on the bases. (With Ethier healthy expect this to be billed like the Braun and Fielder duo of last season.
3. Blake Hawksworth will be starting the season on the DL. It seems weird to take this as good news, but Hawksworth while being satisfactory, he was far from being excellent out of the pen. According to Baseball Reference the Hawk appeared in a high leverage situation in 17 games. In those games batters hit 375 with an OPS of 932. For comparison Jansen appeared in 20 games and held batters to a 116 batting average. In fact by the end of the season he had been relagated mostly to cleanup duty. So the silver lining of this is that depsite Ned's best efforts to block any changes Mattingly may want to make to the roster, Donnie Baseball will get the chance to go fishing in his large, but shallow pool of pitching talent invited to camp. (My bet is on Jamey Wright)
So team positives going into 2012, despite a lack of a proven #2 starter, the starting rotation is deep and decent as all five are established starters. The bullpen looks to be solid with Jansen, Guerra, Elbert, Coffey, and good backup arms in the minors with Eovaldi and Lindblom. Matt Kemp will be coming back, and Andre should be healthy. And Kemp's work ethic from last season seems to have paid off, as a number of Dodger's decided to show up early to camp (Kemp, Gordon, Ellis, Kershaw, Sellers)
Now even though the Dodger infield should be very slick with a glove, we can all agree that their offensive production is going to be equivilent to the amount of wind produced by a butterfly flapping it's wings. Plus with Ned "head up my a**" Colletti at the helm there has only been one spot left on the roster for a non roster invitee, or a minor league player to make the squad. Essentialy there is one spot and fifteen players trying out for it.
So barring injury who gets the spot. Seems to me, despite Sands massive numbers when coming back up for his second drink of coffee with the big team (342 BA and 908 OPS) Dodger management thinks he doesn't have enough seasoning. Since Sands projects to be an everyday, he will most likly start the season in AAA so he doesn't have to sit on a bench. Also with Ned's signings, there is a clear lack of a backup SS in case Dee goes down with an injury. As none of the NRI's strike me as a good backup infielder, my guess is that Sellers will find himself on the major league roster leaving camp.
Now for the wishful thinking aspect. With Kennedy's nearly minimal 800k contract we could all hope that he preforms pitifully enough that they DFA him before camp is over. That opens up one more roster spot. Currently I'm torn between NRI's Jeff Baisley and Josh Fields. Both men are over the hill in prospect terms at 29 (in fact Fields is just 4 days older than Baisley), however, at under 30 and playing the hot corners, both could add value for the Dodgers. Baisley has spent the last 8 years in the A's farm system. He hits for good average and hits for decent power as he hit 20 HR's in the minors last year, but has only played 14 games at the major league level. Baisley also has a good glove at first and third as well. Fields, does not have good fielding (despite his last name), but has shown great power, as he was onced ranked a top 50 prospect in 2007, and hit 23 HR's in the majors the same year. He has an OBP problem, but could have melowed out in his last couple of years floating back and forth between the majors and minors. If there were ever a Quad A player it might be Fields as he enjoyed a 350+ BA his last two seasons in the minors, but has yet to fully translate that in the majors. He could be a very interesting risk, and truthfully, could he be worse than Uribe was last year...?
The rest of my wishes depend on players getting injured in Spring training so that some prospects can play, and since it involves people getting hurt, I'm not gonna say it out loud. In conclusion I will leave you with a slight positive note about Colletti. Despite his major league signing's being aweful this year (minus the Kemp extension), at least he's getting some interesting NRI to camp.
Friday, February 17, 2012
Putting Either back in line
Well it seems that yesterday, Steve Dilbeck of the LA Times put up an article stating how the Dodgers should lock up Andre Either while he is still on the cheap after a disappointing 2011 and 2010 season.
Taking all the emotion out of the equation, and looking at the entire Dodgers' organization my first reaction is to wait for Either's value to rise and then trade him to a contender some decent near major league ready second base and third base prospects; things the Dodger system is in dire need of, and replace him with the abundance of outfield prospects the Dodgers are currently grooming. Looking from afar, Either is a player whose numbers seem to be declining drasticaly as he ages. His OPS has dropped nearly 100 points in the last 4 years from 885 in '08 to 789 in '11. He plays a mediocre to bad defense in right, and not only has his power number been dropping, but he is also notoriously bad against left handed pitching, and accoridng to last years stats, he is getting worse. In 2010 he had a BB% of 7.3 and a K% of 20.2 against left handed pitching. Last year his BB% dropped to 4.6, and his K% rose to 27.2, both numbers going in the wrong direction. He has also been shown as having a negative effect on the clubhouse, blaming managers, and waisting AB's with poor attitude. From a non-emotional position, I see a good bat against righties, with a subpar attitude, who can't hit lefties, who isn't a great defender, and who's patience at the plate is getting worse with age, not better.
On the other hand, baseball is something we can't help but be romantic about, and has their been any other player who has pulled on our heartstings more in the past three years than Either. Whether it was his tenure as "Mr Clutch" hitting 11 walk off hits during the '08 to '10 seasons, or his most recent 30 game hit streak from this year, the man most certainly knows how to get us to cheer for him.
So where does that put us... Well no matter what at this point Either will be a Dodger for the first half of 2012. So let's say his tryout will be the first two months of the season. I say bat him 4th behind Kemp, so Kemp has protection and room to run. If Either shows some restraint, get's his walks back up, and flashes some of his old power, then I say throw him a 3 yr / 36 mil deal right then and there at the begining of June. If he does not show some grownup restraint, and the clubhouse issues resurface, then I say trade him and gut him for all he's worth (even if his power is back).
Taking all the emotion out of the equation, and looking at the entire Dodgers' organization my first reaction is to wait for Either's value to rise and then trade him to a contender some decent near major league ready second base and third base prospects; things the Dodger system is in dire need of, and replace him with the abundance of outfield prospects the Dodgers are currently grooming. Looking from afar, Either is a player whose numbers seem to be declining drasticaly as he ages. His OPS has dropped nearly 100 points in the last 4 years from 885 in '08 to 789 in '11. He plays a mediocre to bad defense in right, and not only has his power number been dropping, but he is also notoriously bad against left handed pitching, and accoridng to last years stats, he is getting worse. In 2010 he had a BB% of 7.3 and a K% of 20.2 against left handed pitching. Last year his BB% dropped to 4.6, and his K% rose to 27.2, both numbers going in the wrong direction. He has also been shown as having a negative effect on the clubhouse, blaming managers, and waisting AB's with poor attitude. From a non-emotional position, I see a good bat against righties, with a subpar attitude, who can't hit lefties, who isn't a great defender, and who's patience at the plate is getting worse with age, not better.
On the other hand, baseball is something we can't help but be romantic about, and has their been any other player who has pulled on our heartstings more in the past three years than Either. Whether it was his tenure as "Mr Clutch" hitting 11 walk off hits during the '08 to '10 seasons, or his most recent 30 game hit streak from this year, the man most certainly knows how to get us to cheer for him.
So where does that put us... Well no matter what at this point Either will be a Dodger for the first half of 2012. So let's say his tryout will be the first two months of the season. I say bat him 4th behind Kemp, so Kemp has protection and room to run. If Either shows some restraint, get's his walks back up, and flashes some of his old power, then I say throw him a 3 yr / 36 mil deal right then and there at the begining of June. If he does not show some grownup restraint, and the clubhouse issues resurface, then I say trade him and gut him for all he's worth (even if his power is back).
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