With Xmas around the corner I thought I'd fantasize my own Xmas shopping list for the Dodgers.
As we all know the last year has been crazy with the Guggenheim Partners buying up the Dodgers and then spending millions to improve the team. First came the signing of Andre Either to a 5yr/85mil extension, then Hanley Ramirez joined the team, and finally the Red Sox's fire sale sending Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford over to the Dodgers. Then add to the spending the winter signings of Zack Greinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and bringing back Brandon League, and it seems that the Guggenheim Partners have gone all in to bring LA a World Series right now.
Yet despite all this spending and bringing the payroll up over the $200 million mark, sports writers are weary of this Dodger Super team. David Schoenfield of ESPN placed the Dodgers 7th in his winter rankings, and he worries that the age of the players may be a factor in their results for 2013. His worry is a valid point, and while many brush off this comment for the current year, there should be concern about the future. If the Dodgers keep Crawford and Either to the conclusion of their contracts in 2017 the outfield would consist of Matt Kemp (32), Crawford (35) and Either (35). Hardly a young set of outfielders. And to make matters worse they would also have a 35 yr old Adrian Gonzalez manning first. Last year the Dodger's ranked 3rd to last in batter's age, with only Philly and the Yanks behind them, and even with the removal of Juan Rivera from the starting lineup, they do not project to get much younger.
So how can the Dodgers get younger...? Well their best bet would be to fill other spots on the field with young prospects. The positions they could do this at would be 2nd, 3rd, Short, and Catcher. However, the Dodger organization is not particularly strong at any of these positions, in fact they have only one infield prospect in the their top 10, Corey Seager, the younger brother of Kyle Seager who plays 3rd for the Mariners, and won't be ready for at least 2 years if rushed. Another option would be to go back to playing Dee Gordon, but the organization seems to have soured on the young speedster. So with no internal options available the Dodgers need to trade for some young talent to put in their offense. But who would want the high priced talent the Dodgers have available to trade?
Well 1 team that I've already mentioned is interested in two Dodgers, and has called the club to ask about them. Who am I talking about, the Mariners! With Hamilton having signed the Mariners are looking for a power lefthanded bat and have called about Andre Either. According to Mike Petriello of MSTI "Even last year, when [Either] struggled for months at a time, he had the 7th highest wOBA against righties of any other player, better than Josh Hamilton or Giancarlo Stanton or Joe Mauer or Chase Headley. Over the last three years, he’s 9th; over the last five, he’s 7th." The Mariners also seem to be high on Dee Gordon, being one of the few teams that believes they can develop the speedster. The Mariners are also looking for some solid back of the rotation arms to shore up their pitching behind King Felix. If a high ranked pitching prospect gets thrown into the mix with a good deal of money, the Mariners could walk away with a pretty decent package, to get the outfield "Slugger" they've been coveting all offseason. So what would the Dodgers ask for in return...? Well Corey's older brother Kyle Seager of course. In his 1st full year in the majors Kyle hit 259/316/423 (avg/obp/slg). While these numbers aren't as inspiring as Either's 284/359/465 clip, both batters hit over 30 doubles and 20 home runs, plus Kyle has yet to enter his prime, while Either moves towards the end of his. Also Kyle showed more ability to hit lefties than the troubled Either.
The benfits of getting Kyle Seager are not just limited to his age. Getting Seager this year opens up a spot in the Dodger's outfield. This could be plugged by signing a 2 year deal with another brother, Scott Hairston and platooning him and Skip Schumaker, as both have crushed pitchers from the opposite side. This also allows for Yasiel Puig to be unblocked, and for him to join the outfield within the next year or two. While some may wonder about losing offensive production, Hairston and Seager project to about 40hrs vs, Either and Cruz's projected 28hrs. In addition, Kyle's original position is 2nd. Assuming the Dodger's fast track his brother, and allow Kyle a few games and practice time at 2nd, the infielder could slide over there to make room for his brother. While this trade may reduce the potency of the Dodgers' outfield for 2013, the benefit in shoring up the infield, and allowing for the team to remain competitive beyond the next three years makes it a hell of a good deal.
Wednesday, December 19, 2012
Friday, April 13, 2012
A Pitchers Worst Nightmare
With the startup of AJ Ellis facts, and it's entertaining joke facts, I was reminded of an argument I had with a friend after the 2010 season about the unseen advantages of Casey Blake. At the time I stated that an unseen benefit of Casey Blake was his tenacity at the plate, and with his tenacity he he aided the team in chasing pitchers out of the game early.
Now what's the benefit of this? In the modern age of closely watched pitch counts, and bullpen arms not seeing more than 2 games in a row, the amount of work that pitchers see is very closely watched. Let's give an example of how a three game series may work out if a team successfully extended their plate appearences in order to chase pitchers out of the game. Let's assume that with a bullpen of 7 pitchers 3 were used the night before going into the three game series leaving 4 fresh relievers. Assuming the batters work full counts, and they average one man on base each inning, then with 4 batters faced each inning the starter would pitch 100 pitches by the fifth and most likly be done at that point. If this can be repeated all three days, than with 4 innings of baseball left, 12 innings at least will need to be covered by the bullpen. That doesn't even include situational switches in order to set up lefty on lefty matchups. Basically, by the third game of the series the opposing team, now deep into their bullpen, will be useing their worst and most ineffective relievers to close out the series rather than their best. In fact in 2011, the two teams who saw the most pitches per plate appearence ranked number 1 and 2 runs scored as well.
In closing there is a great deal of unseen value to batters like AJ Ellis, whom so far this year is ranked 2nd in pitches seen per plate appearance and I wish the Dodgers had a few more batters like him.
Now what's the benefit of this? In the modern age of closely watched pitch counts, and bullpen arms not seeing more than 2 games in a row, the amount of work that pitchers see is very closely watched. Let's give an example of how a three game series may work out if a team successfully extended their plate appearences in order to chase pitchers out of the game. Let's assume that with a bullpen of 7 pitchers 3 were used the night before going into the three game series leaving 4 fresh relievers. Assuming the batters work full counts, and they average one man on base each inning, then with 4 batters faced each inning the starter would pitch 100 pitches by the fifth and most likly be done at that point. If this can be repeated all three days, than with 4 innings of baseball left, 12 innings at least will need to be covered by the bullpen. That doesn't even include situational switches in order to set up lefty on lefty matchups. Basically, by the third game of the series the opposing team, now deep into their bullpen, will be useing their worst and most ineffective relievers to close out the series rather than their best. In fact in 2011, the two teams who saw the most pitches per plate appearence ranked number 1 and 2 runs scored as well.
In closing there is a great deal of unseen value to batters like AJ Ellis, whom so far this year is ranked 2nd in pitches seen per plate appearance and I wish the Dodgers had a few more batters like him.
Thursday, April 12, 2012
Dodgers looks to have a solid 1-2 pitching punch!
So 6 games into the season and the Dodgers own a league leading 5-1 record. This is the first time the Dodgers have had this good of a start since 1999, but the 1999 team finished under .500 and did not make the playoffs. So what should we really be looking at 6 games into the season? We should be looking at the fact that so far this season the Dodgers are not just a team of two lone gunslingers, Matt Kemp for batting and Kershaw for pitching. Instead the team has a pair of dynamic duo, with Matt Kemp and Andre Either for hitting, and Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley leading the pitching. Add a lights out bullpen, and things are looking bright for the 2012 Dodgers. For Either its clear that the healthy knee has made a word of difference allowing him to hit the ball with more authority, and allowing him to get around left handed pitching as he is 3 for 9 against lefties to start the season. Even with Either's lights out batting right now, I'm going to focus instead on the second half of the pitching duo, Chad Billingsley.
Entering 2009 the Dodgers thought they had the best young pitching duo in Chad Billingsley who at 24 had just finished a solid 16-10 season, and young fireballing lefty Clayton Kershaw. Since then Kershaw has developed into one of the best 5 pitchers in baseball, while Billingsley has shown no development. In 2008 Chad finished the season with a 9 SO/9 (innings), and a 3.6 BB/9. In 2009 the strikeout rate fell to a 8.2 SO/9, while the BB/9 stayed near 4 at 3.9. In 2010 the strikeout rate continued dropping to a 8.0 SO/9, and the BB/9 saw a slight decline to 3.2. In 2011 the first year Chad did not finish with a winning record, his SO/9 bottomed out at 7.3 while his BB/9 rose to an all time high at 4. This means that over the past 4 years Billingsley has seen his SO/BB drop a respectable 2.5 down to a 1.8. Now looking at these numbers you're most likely wondering what can all this mean when put together.
When drafted in 2003 there was no doubt that Chad Billingsley had great stuff, and even today people still know he has great stuff. In fact one of the things that Billingsley has stayed consistently good at is not allowing batters to get solid contact. In the last 4 years he has never been worse than 17th for slugging percentage, meaning even if he allows hits most of the hits allowed are singles. If it wasn't for walking batters as well his ERA would drop drastically. In fact there have been other successful pitchers who didn't have high strikeout totals, but instead use their ability to make hitters not square up, and lack of walks to put together a good SO/BB ratio, and have good seasons. Two great examples would be Matt Cain and Tim Hudson. Last season Cain had a SO/9 rate of 7.3, but only walked 2.6 BB/9 giving him a SO/BB ratio of 2.84 on his way to a 2.88 ERA. Hudson had a 6.6 SO/9 rate, with a 2.3 BB/9, giving him a SO/BB ratio of 2.82, with an ERA of 3.22. If Billingsley can keep his walks down, his strikeout to walk ratio will improve leading to a lower ERA and more wins. The importance of not giving up walks is evident in Clayton Kershaw's 2011 where he won a Cy Young award. During 2011 Kershaw dropped his BB/9 from 3.6 to 2.1, which in turn allowed him to go further into games and pitch more innings in 2011 than any of his previous seasons.
For 2012, the greatest improvement to Chad's pitching has been his reduced walk rate. In no other season has Billingsley had only 1 walk through 2 starts, and with that, only allowed 1 run. Looking at this there is no way Chad will continue to walk so few batters, but lets assume that over the season he can improve on his career numbers and post a 2.5 BB/9. Over a 200 inning season that means walking about 55 batters, about 30 less than 2011. Since 4 walks make a run, we'll divide the 30 runners by 4, and make about 8 runs saved over the course of a year. Chad allowed 88 earned runs in nearly 200 innings. Now subtract 8 runs from that to make 80 runs. This would drop Chad's ERA down to a very respectable 3.63.
In short Chad Billingsley has good stuff, and can be a good pitcher. For years he's been trying to be a strikeout, swing and miss type pitcher, but that's not who he is. Chad hard to square up, mis-hit type pitcher, who doesn't get hit hard, and grinds through his innings without a lot of flash. If he wants to pitch well this year, he only needs to do one thing, stop walking people. If Chad can say drop his walks down to 50 walks this year, he is gonna see a vast improvement in all his other stats, and become a true one two punch with Kershaw.
Entering 2009 the Dodgers thought they had the best young pitching duo in Chad Billingsley who at 24 had just finished a solid 16-10 season, and young fireballing lefty Clayton Kershaw. Since then Kershaw has developed into one of the best 5 pitchers in baseball, while Billingsley has shown no development. In 2008 Chad finished the season with a 9 SO/9 (innings), and a 3.6 BB/9. In 2009 the strikeout rate fell to a 8.2 SO/9, while the BB/9 stayed near 4 at 3.9. In 2010 the strikeout rate continued dropping to a 8.0 SO/9, and the BB/9 saw a slight decline to 3.2. In 2011 the first year Chad did not finish with a winning record, his SO/9 bottomed out at 7.3 while his BB/9 rose to an all time high at 4. This means that over the past 4 years Billingsley has seen his SO/BB drop a respectable 2.5 down to a 1.8. Now looking at these numbers you're most likely wondering what can all this mean when put together.
When drafted in 2003 there was no doubt that Chad Billingsley had great stuff, and even today people still know he has great stuff. In fact one of the things that Billingsley has stayed consistently good at is not allowing batters to get solid contact. In the last 4 years he has never been worse than 17th for slugging percentage, meaning even if he allows hits most of the hits allowed are singles. If it wasn't for walking batters as well his ERA would drop drastically. In fact there have been other successful pitchers who didn't have high strikeout totals, but instead use their ability to make hitters not square up, and lack of walks to put together a good SO/BB ratio, and have good seasons. Two great examples would be Matt Cain and Tim Hudson. Last season Cain had a SO/9 rate of 7.3, but only walked 2.6 BB/9 giving him a SO/BB ratio of 2.84 on his way to a 2.88 ERA. Hudson had a 6.6 SO/9 rate, with a 2.3 BB/9, giving him a SO/BB ratio of 2.82, with an ERA of 3.22. If Billingsley can keep his walks down, his strikeout to walk ratio will improve leading to a lower ERA and more wins. The importance of not giving up walks is evident in Clayton Kershaw's 2011 where he won a Cy Young award. During 2011 Kershaw dropped his BB/9 from 3.6 to 2.1, which in turn allowed him to go further into games and pitch more innings in 2011 than any of his previous seasons.
For 2012, the greatest improvement to Chad's pitching has been his reduced walk rate. In no other season has Billingsley had only 1 walk through 2 starts, and with that, only allowed 1 run. Looking at this there is no way Chad will continue to walk so few batters, but lets assume that over the season he can improve on his career numbers and post a 2.5 BB/9. Over a 200 inning season that means walking about 55 batters, about 30 less than 2011. Since 4 walks make a run, we'll divide the 30 runners by 4, and make about 8 runs saved over the course of a year. Chad allowed 88 earned runs in nearly 200 innings. Now subtract 8 runs from that to make 80 runs. This would drop Chad's ERA down to a very respectable 3.63.
In short Chad Billingsley has good stuff, and can be a good pitcher. For years he's been trying to be a strikeout, swing and miss type pitcher, but that's not who he is. Chad hard to square up, mis-hit type pitcher, who doesn't get hit hard, and grinds through his innings without a lot of flash. If he wants to pitch well this year, he only needs to do one thing, stop walking people. If Chad can say drop his walks down to 50 walks this year, he is gonna see a vast improvement in all his other stats, and become a true one two punch with Kershaw.
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
Opening Day at Dodger Stadium! 50 Years in Chavez Ravine
Dodgers Lineup for 4/10:
1. Dee Gordon SS
2. Mark Ellis 2B
3. Matt Kemp CF
4. Andre Either RF
5. Juan Rivera LF
6. James Loney 1B
7. Juan Uribe 3B
8. AJ Ellis C
9. Clayton Kershaw P
Well as the Dodgers have their home opener today, I guess I should get on and give a review of the weekend. After their first week in baseball, the Dodgers have a record of 3-1, a very solid and respectable record, good enough to start out a half game back of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Now to put things in perspective four games is only 2.5% of the season, but it's always good to start things off on the right foot which the Dodgers certainly did. Also it's not like the Padres are an offensive powerhouse team, however, even in the cavernous depths of Petco park the Dodgers were able to average just over 5 runs per game though their first 4. As we look at the 2012 season, and the Dodgers chances at securing a postseason berth, I believe it is necessary to look at how their schedule pans out, because in the wake of new ownership things could shape up in an interesting way.
Looking at the Dodgers lineup, it certainly can be said that their is a good deal of talent. Certainly, Matt Kemp and Andre Either, are talented hitters, and it looks like Dee Gordon could be one as well. Juan Rivera lately seems to be experiencing a resurgence in his career, and Mark Ellis has show a great deal of self sacrifice, focusing on moving Dee into scoring position by any means (mostly resulting in an out). That means that the Dodgers offense relies entirely on the first five hitters, and more specifically the 1,3,4 and 5 hitters. As James Loney and Juan Uribe have become offensive black holes again, the only other bright spot in the lineup is AJ Ellis, unfortunately, his OBP skills are only being used in an attempt to roll over the lineup. So what does that mean? Boiled down it means that there are 4 easy outs in the Dodgers lineup, and without a deep lineup, their offense relies on the shoulders of 4 men, a heavy load, especially if any of them go into slumps.
Despite the short lineup, the Dodgers still have a chance to make a splash in 2012. In the first 50 games of the season, the Dodgers face teams that had a .500 or better record in 2011, only 19 times. They face the Padres 9 times, and the Astros 6 times. This is a very easy start to the season, and assuming that they can walk away with 2 wins for every three games against the under 500 teams, and 1 win in three against the over 500 teams, the Dodgers would have a respectable and competitive 27-23 record, with 2 thirds of the season left to play. If the Dodgers can stay relevant up to the Allstar game, then ownership has a chance to make a difference and give the Dodgers a legitimate shot as the they move in to the tougher portion of their schedule. With a mid season trade, for someone like David Wright, the Dodgers can lengthen their lineup, help spread the offensive load, and make themselves a legitimate contender. It may seem crazy, but due to the easy first half of the schedule, and new ownership, the Dodgers in fact have a chance to make a post season run this year, if they can win the games they should win, and nothing major happens to the short offense in the lineup.
1. Dee Gordon SS
2. Mark Ellis 2B
3. Matt Kemp CF
4. Andre Either RF
5. Juan Rivera LF
6. James Loney 1B
7. Juan Uribe 3B
8. AJ Ellis C
9. Clayton Kershaw P
Well as the Dodgers have their home opener today, I guess I should get on and give a review of the weekend. After their first week in baseball, the Dodgers have a record of 3-1, a very solid and respectable record, good enough to start out a half game back of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Now to put things in perspective four games is only 2.5% of the season, but it's always good to start things off on the right foot which the Dodgers certainly did. Also it's not like the Padres are an offensive powerhouse team, however, even in the cavernous depths of Petco park the Dodgers were able to average just over 5 runs per game though their first 4. As we look at the 2012 season, and the Dodgers chances at securing a postseason berth, I believe it is necessary to look at how their schedule pans out, because in the wake of new ownership things could shape up in an interesting way.
Looking at the Dodgers lineup, it certainly can be said that their is a good deal of talent. Certainly, Matt Kemp and Andre Either, are talented hitters, and it looks like Dee Gordon could be one as well. Juan Rivera lately seems to be experiencing a resurgence in his career, and Mark Ellis has show a great deal of self sacrifice, focusing on moving Dee into scoring position by any means (mostly resulting in an out). That means that the Dodgers offense relies entirely on the first five hitters, and more specifically the 1,3,4 and 5 hitters. As James Loney and Juan Uribe have become offensive black holes again, the only other bright spot in the lineup is AJ Ellis, unfortunately, his OBP skills are only being used in an attempt to roll over the lineup. So what does that mean? Boiled down it means that there are 4 easy outs in the Dodgers lineup, and without a deep lineup, their offense relies on the shoulders of 4 men, a heavy load, especially if any of them go into slumps.
Despite the short lineup, the Dodgers still have a chance to make a splash in 2012. In the first 50 games of the season, the Dodgers face teams that had a .500 or better record in 2011, only 19 times. They face the Padres 9 times, and the Astros 6 times. This is a very easy start to the season, and assuming that they can walk away with 2 wins for every three games against the under 500 teams, and 1 win in three against the over 500 teams, the Dodgers would have a respectable and competitive 27-23 record, with 2 thirds of the season left to play. If the Dodgers can stay relevant up to the Allstar game, then ownership has a chance to make a difference and give the Dodgers a legitimate shot as the they move in to the tougher portion of their schedule. With a mid season trade, for someone like David Wright, the Dodgers can lengthen their lineup, help spread the offensive load, and make themselves a legitimate contender. It may seem crazy, but due to the easy first half of the schedule, and new ownership, the Dodgers in fact have a chance to make a post season run this year, if they can win the games they should win, and nothing major happens to the short offense in the lineup.
Friday, April 6, 2012
Dodger's are number 1!
After one game the Dodgers are first in the West!
Well the post I wrote earlier today was supposed to be the game recap. However, as I began to write it I got sidetracked by what really was an incredible pitching effort Clayton Kershaw put forth. So now in this post I will do a quick recap of the game.
To start the game Kershaw threw better than anyone could have hoped for. After he finished Josh Lindblom, showed why he was picked to stay on the team with two shutout innings. Mike was his normal wild self, and after giving up a walk, he allowed one run, knocked in on a Jesus Guzman double. in his one inning of relief. Gurrier worked a scoreless inning, getting out on a double play. Jansen, allowed a two run homer, and I must say I'm a little worried about the number of homers he's allowed lately in spring training and here. To me it looks like he has slowed his fastball a few mph to get more control of his pitches, but also losing some of it's late movement. A close eye will need to be kept on him to make sure this doesn't blow up into another Broxton. And Guerra pitched a scoreless inning for the save. Overall a solid outing from the bullpen.
On the other side of the tape the Dodgers had a decent day as well. Kemp and Rivera both had good days with two hits apiece. Kemp hit his first homerun of the season, a high pop fly, that just happened to come down over the outfield scoreboard (and by inches). Also of note with Kemp is that he did not strike out at all, so perhaps we were all worried for nothing about his spring numbers. Kemp also was caught stealing, when he picked a bad pitch to run on, however, on the other side of things, the pitch was a fastball right down the middle of the plate, and Ethier who was up to bat, should have taken a swing at the batting practice pitch. AJ Ellis performed as expected having a hit, and working out a bases loaded walk. In fact AJ didn't even swing his bat for the first 17 pitches he saw, and worked out full counts all three times he came up to the plate including his walk. I mean "wow" talk about patience at the plate. Also his single came off a ten pitch at bat. In all Ellis saw 27 pitches in just four at bats. Even more incredible was Juan Uribe managed to work himself a walk in between his two strikeouts. Now on to the distressing portion of the offense. Dee Gordon managed to walk away from the game 0 for 5. Now I contest that he was actually 1 for 5 as his "triple" was labeled an "error". An error is defined as: a fielder misplaying a ball in a manner that allows a batter or baserunner to reach one or more additional bases, when such an advance would have been prevented given ordinary effort by the fielder. Anyone, other than the scorer could see that the amount of effort it took Camron Maybin to track down Gordon's long fly ball was not, I repeat NOT, an ordinary effort. However, it was clear that Dee was not identifying the pitches well out of Volquez's hand. Also he did not show his bunt attack, something which given the effectiveness when combined with his speed, should be used at least once each game.
Overall it was a solid game by the Dodgers, but to quote Wills and Uribe's new shirt "You can do better!"
On the minor league side of things, the Dodgers High A affiliate, the Rancho Cucamunga Quakes, and AAA affiliate, the Albuquerque Isotopes both lost. Despite that some prospects performed well. Future ace Zach Lee pitched 5 scoreless innings, allowing only one hit and one walk, with 5 strikeouts. For the Topes some offense showed up to the game despite the loss. Castellanos played the whole game at second, went 1 for 4 with a triple and drew two walks and had two steals. Scott Van Slyke had a walk and went 2 for 4 with a homerun. Future backstop Fedex went 1 for 3 and worked 2 walks. Lastly, despite not getting a hit in 4 at bats, Sands knocked in 2, one with a walk, and the other on an error. Despite some great hitting from the Topes' they were 1 for 13 with runners in scoring position, which ultimately led to their loss.
Well the post I wrote earlier today was supposed to be the game recap. However, as I began to write it I got sidetracked by what really was an incredible pitching effort Clayton Kershaw put forth. So now in this post I will do a quick recap of the game.
To start the game Kershaw threw better than anyone could have hoped for. After he finished Josh Lindblom, showed why he was picked to stay on the team with two shutout innings. Mike was his normal wild self, and after giving up a walk, he allowed one run, knocked in on a Jesus Guzman double. in his one inning of relief. Gurrier worked a scoreless inning, getting out on a double play. Jansen, allowed a two run homer, and I must say I'm a little worried about the number of homers he's allowed lately in spring training and here. To me it looks like he has slowed his fastball a few mph to get more control of his pitches, but also losing some of it's late movement. A close eye will need to be kept on him to make sure this doesn't blow up into another Broxton. And Guerra pitched a scoreless inning for the save. Overall a solid outing from the bullpen.
On the other side of the tape the Dodgers had a decent day as well. Kemp and Rivera both had good days with two hits apiece. Kemp hit his first homerun of the season, a high pop fly, that just happened to come down over the outfield scoreboard (and by inches). Also of note with Kemp is that he did not strike out at all, so perhaps we were all worried for nothing about his spring numbers. Kemp also was caught stealing, when he picked a bad pitch to run on, however, on the other side of things, the pitch was a fastball right down the middle of the plate, and Ethier who was up to bat, should have taken a swing at the batting practice pitch. AJ Ellis performed as expected having a hit, and working out a bases loaded walk. In fact AJ didn't even swing his bat for the first 17 pitches he saw, and worked out full counts all three times he came up to the plate including his walk. I mean "wow" talk about patience at the plate. Also his single came off a ten pitch at bat. In all Ellis saw 27 pitches in just four at bats. Even more incredible was Juan Uribe managed to work himself a walk in between his two strikeouts. Now on to the distressing portion of the offense. Dee Gordon managed to walk away from the game 0 for 5. Now I contest that he was actually 1 for 5 as his "triple" was labeled an "error". An error is defined as: a fielder misplaying a ball in a manner that allows a batter or baserunner to reach one or more additional bases, when such an advance would have been prevented given ordinary effort by the fielder. Anyone, other than the scorer could see that the amount of effort it took Camron Maybin to track down Gordon's long fly ball was not, I repeat NOT, an ordinary effort. However, it was clear that Dee was not identifying the pitches well out of Volquez's hand. Also he did not show his bunt attack, something which given the effectiveness when combined with his speed, should be used at least once each game.
Overall it was a solid game by the Dodgers, but to quote Wills and Uribe's new shirt "You can do better!"
On the minor league side of things, the Dodgers High A affiliate, the Rancho Cucamunga Quakes, and AAA affiliate, the Albuquerque Isotopes both lost. Despite that some prospects performed well. Future ace Zach Lee pitched 5 scoreless innings, allowing only one hit and one walk, with 5 strikeouts. For the Topes some offense showed up to the game despite the loss. Castellanos played the whole game at second, went 1 for 4 with a triple and drew two walks and had two steals. Scott Van Slyke had a walk and went 2 for 4 with a homerun. Future backstop Fedex went 1 for 3 and worked 2 walks. Lastly, despite not getting a hit in 4 at bats, Sands knocked in 2, one with a walk, and the other on an error. Despite some great hitting from the Topes' they were 1 for 13 with runners in scoring position, which ultimately led to their loss.
Clayton Kershaw, is there anything he can't do?
Well opening day has come and gone at Petco Park, and after all was finished the team still standing was the Dodgers. For anybody who didn't watch this game could have been all kinds of crazy.
Minutes before the the game Vin Scully on the TV announced that despite the pleading of his manager, Don Mattingly, and pitching coach, Rick Honeycutt, Clayton Kershaw decided to take the mound. He had been suffering all day with a stomach flu, unable to eat, and leaking fluids from all ends. Scully even mentioned how Kershaw was needing to squat down and take breaks between throws of his long toss warm up. Despite how he felt Kershaw pulled himself together and marched himself to the mound perhaps hoping that game time adrenaline would get him through his ailment so that he could pitch.
However, things wouldn't be so easy, as it became clear on Clayton's second pitch, an 89 mph four seam fastball, that Clayton was not himself. Now to the casual observer there may not be much of a difference between a 90 mph fastball and a 95 mph fastball (Clayton's normal speed), but to baseball, it's a world of difference. Just ask Kershaw's teammates Ted Lilly or Chris Capuano, both know as soft tossing lefties, how much extra precision they need to get by on their 89 mph fastballs. Despite lacking his number 1 pitch to which he build his pitching repertoire around, Kershaw made it through the first inning on only 8 pitches, getting two groundouts and a flyout. The second took a little longer, the side was retired on 12 pitches, with two groundouts and a strikeout.
As the top of the third neared its conclusion up to the plate came Kershaw with a bat in his hand. One can only imagine the conversation between Kershaw and Mattingly before going to the plate, but one must assume that with Kershaw's condition Mattingly would have said, "take it easy. Don't swing and don't get hurt. Concentrate on your own pitching." However taking it easy isn't something Clayton does, instead on a 1 and 1 pitch he hits a single to left field. When the left fielder then bobbles the ball, Kershaw only hesitates for a moment considering his condition before throwing caution to the wind and running down to second.
When Kershaw slowly walks to the mound in the bottom of the third he is clearly fatigued he gets two quick outs on a ground out and strikeout before the wheels start to come off the wagon. Soon after two singles, a wild pitch and a walk the bases are loaded. Kershaw is facing Nick Hundley. After 3 pitches the count is 1 and 2. Kershaw takes a deep breath, reels back and fires. it's a 92 mph fastball, his second fastest pitch of the night. Even with all his remaining strength mustered into the throw it's still well below his average speed. However, the pitch was fast enough as it caught the inside corner of the plate and sent a frozen Hundly back to his dugout. Kershaw having retired the side walks slowly back to the dugout. As the Dodgers worked the top of the fourth for 3 runs, we were told that Mattingly found Kershaw laying on the floor in the tunnel behind the dugout. Kershaw could barely move, but he was working up the effort to go out and pitch another inning. At that point Donnie Baseball told the young pitcher that he was done for the day, and the bullpen would finish up the game.
People always talk about how cliche movies can be, and that life is never like the movies. What compels us to watch sports is that it contains real life moments that do defy definition. If you ask a Dodger fan which is a greater moment, Roy Hobbs light shattering home run in "The Natural", or Kirk Gibson's home run in the 1988 World Series, without a doubt that person would say Gibson's was the most moving. In truth, movies many times are an attempt to copy a small part greatest moments in life. Kershaw's battle against adversity yesterday was such a moment, and if you haven't seen it yet I suggest you do.
Minutes before the the game Vin Scully on the TV announced that despite the pleading of his manager, Don Mattingly, and pitching coach, Rick Honeycutt, Clayton Kershaw decided to take the mound. He had been suffering all day with a stomach flu, unable to eat, and leaking fluids from all ends. Scully even mentioned how Kershaw was needing to squat down and take breaks between throws of his long toss warm up. Despite how he felt Kershaw pulled himself together and marched himself to the mound perhaps hoping that game time adrenaline would get him through his ailment so that he could pitch.
However, things wouldn't be so easy, as it became clear on Clayton's second pitch, an 89 mph four seam fastball, that Clayton was not himself. Now to the casual observer there may not be much of a difference between a 90 mph fastball and a 95 mph fastball (Clayton's normal speed), but to baseball, it's a world of difference. Just ask Kershaw's teammates Ted Lilly or Chris Capuano, both know as soft tossing lefties, how much extra precision they need to get by on their 89 mph fastballs. Despite lacking his number 1 pitch to which he build his pitching repertoire around, Kershaw made it through the first inning on only 8 pitches, getting two groundouts and a flyout. The second took a little longer, the side was retired on 12 pitches, with two groundouts and a strikeout.
As the top of the third neared its conclusion up to the plate came Kershaw with a bat in his hand. One can only imagine the conversation between Kershaw and Mattingly before going to the plate, but one must assume that with Kershaw's condition Mattingly would have said, "take it easy. Don't swing and don't get hurt. Concentrate on your own pitching." However taking it easy isn't something Clayton does, instead on a 1 and 1 pitch he hits a single to left field. When the left fielder then bobbles the ball, Kershaw only hesitates for a moment considering his condition before throwing caution to the wind and running down to second.
When Kershaw slowly walks to the mound in the bottom of the third he is clearly fatigued he gets two quick outs on a ground out and strikeout before the wheels start to come off the wagon. Soon after two singles, a wild pitch and a walk the bases are loaded. Kershaw is facing Nick Hundley. After 3 pitches the count is 1 and 2. Kershaw takes a deep breath, reels back and fires. it's a 92 mph fastball, his second fastest pitch of the night. Even with all his remaining strength mustered into the throw it's still well below his average speed. However, the pitch was fast enough as it caught the inside corner of the plate and sent a frozen Hundly back to his dugout. Kershaw having retired the side walks slowly back to the dugout. As the Dodgers worked the top of the fourth for 3 runs, we were told that Mattingly found Kershaw laying on the floor in the tunnel behind the dugout. Kershaw could barely move, but he was working up the effort to go out and pitch another inning. At that point Donnie Baseball told the young pitcher that he was done for the day, and the bullpen would finish up the game.
People always talk about how cliche movies can be, and that life is never like the movies. What compels us to watch sports is that it contains real life moments that do defy definition. If you ask a Dodger fan which is a greater moment, Roy Hobbs light shattering home run in "The Natural", or Kirk Gibson's home run in the 1988 World Series, without a doubt that person would say Gibson's was the most moving. In truth, movies many times are an attempt to copy a small part greatest moments in life. Kershaw's battle against adversity yesterday was such a moment, and if you haven't seen it yet I suggest you do.
Thursday, March 29, 2012
Despite new ownership Magic's and Kastan's hands will be tied
As we enter a new era for Dodger baseball, one filled with hope and promises from the soon to be owners, we cannot forget that this team is currently chained into mediocrity for the next two years. As shocking as this may seem, especially given Magic, and Kastan's statement that they bought the Dodgers with the intention of winning now, if you look at the current state of the Dodger contracts, things do not look pretty, and the man who set all of this up is Ned Colletti.
Looking towards the 2013 season there are some interesting free agents available, however, the focus of the market is in pitching and not offense. For starting pitching the likes of Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, and Zack Grinke are available. For the offense the biggest names would be Miguel Montero (C), Mike Napoli (C), Brandon Philips (2B), Josh Hamilton (OF)and our favorite Andre Either (RF).
First let's look at starting pitching. Currently the Dodgers rotation is set as Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsly, Ted Lilly, Aaron Harng, Chris Capuano. Of these Lilly, Harang, and Capuano are all signed through the 2013 season and to make matters worse, all three contracts are end loaded. In 2013, Lilly will earn 12 million, Harang, 7 million, and Capuano 6 million. Now in order to sign any new starting pitching the Dodgers will need to release or trade a pitcher, and considering how much is owed to these pitchers the Dodgers will also need to pick up some of their tab in order to trade them. My guess is that Harang, or Capuano can be traded, however 4 million of Harang's, and 3 million of Capuano's contract would need to be picked up in order to make a move. Basically it comes down to the question of is Kastan willing to pay a couple million to open up a rotation spot and get a low level prospect.
Now onto position players, and possibly the more depressing part of this post. For next season the open positions (assuming Rivera's option isn't picked up) are 1st base, left field and right field. Catcher can also be considered a place for upgrade as AJ Ellis (despite how much I like the guy) profiles out as a strong backup catcher. This mean that even if David Wright's $16 million option is not picked up by the Mets (making him the best 3rd baseman available), the Dodgers would have no room for him, unless they can unload Uribe and the 8 million he's owed, or relegate his 8 million dollar butt to the bench. This same situation can be seen at 2nd base as well, where Brandon Philips is available, however in order to make space for him, Mark Ellis and the 5 million owed to him would need to be traded, and I just can't see there being a lot of interest in a 35 year old glove first second baseman. As for filling the openings available, picking up Montero and Napoli could be a wise and solid investment. Since Napoli can play both catcher and 1st, his signing in addition to Napoli, would allow for Napoli to catch on Montero's days off. Adding the two would bring two solid bats on each side of the plate, Napoli having a career line of 264/259/514 (Avg/OBP/Slg), and Montero's career is 271/338/451. Together they would also provide at least 35 home runs, nearly 20 more than Loney, and AJ Ellis combined. As for the outfield, with the lack of impact free agents available, it would perhaps be in the Dodger's best interest to lock up Andre Eithier. The only other outfield impact bat would be Hamilton, and while his numbers are great, a career 308/366/543, I am cautious as to how his bat will perform outside of the friendly confines of Ranger's Ballpark, and how his off the field issues will effect his on field play.
In conclusion, though I'm excited about the new owners, I'm just not sure how they can turn the Dodgers into a championship team in the next two years, with barely any open positions in which to sign free agents.
Looking towards the 2013 season there are some interesting free agents available, however, the focus of the market is in pitching and not offense. For starting pitching the likes of Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, and Zack Grinke are available. For the offense the biggest names would be Miguel Montero (C), Mike Napoli (C), Brandon Philips (2B), Josh Hamilton (OF)and our favorite Andre Either (RF).
First let's look at starting pitching. Currently the Dodgers rotation is set as Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsly, Ted Lilly, Aaron Harng, Chris Capuano. Of these Lilly, Harang, and Capuano are all signed through the 2013 season and to make matters worse, all three contracts are end loaded. In 2013, Lilly will earn 12 million, Harang, 7 million, and Capuano 6 million. Now in order to sign any new starting pitching the Dodgers will need to release or trade a pitcher, and considering how much is owed to these pitchers the Dodgers will also need to pick up some of their tab in order to trade them. My guess is that Harang, or Capuano can be traded, however 4 million of Harang's, and 3 million of Capuano's contract would need to be picked up in order to make a move. Basically it comes down to the question of is Kastan willing to pay a couple million to open up a rotation spot and get a low level prospect.
Now onto position players, and possibly the more depressing part of this post. For next season the open positions (assuming Rivera's option isn't picked up) are 1st base, left field and right field. Catcher can also be considered a place for upgrade as AJ Ellis (despite how much I like the guy) profiles out as a strong backup catcher. This mean that even if David Wright's $16 million option is not picked up by the Mets (making him the best 3rd baseman available), the Dodgers would have no room for him, unless they can unload Uribe and the 8 million he's owed, or relegate his 8 million dollar butt to the bench. This same situation can be seen at 2nd base as well, where Brandon Philips is available, however in order to make space for him, Mark Ellis and the 5 million owed to him would need to be traded, and I just can't see there being a lot of interest in a 35 year old glove first second baseman. As for filling the openings available, picking up Montero and Napoli could be a wise and solid investment. Since Napoli can play both catcher and 1st, his signing in addition to Napoli, would allow for Napoli to catch on Montero's days off. Adding the two would bring two solid bats on each side of the plate, Napoli having a career line of 264/259/514 (Avg/OBP/Slg), and Montero's career is 271/338/451. Together they would also provide at least 35 home runs, nearly 20 more than Loney, and AJ Ellis combined. As for the outfield, with the lack of impact free agents available, it would perhaps be in the Dodger's best interest to lock up Andre Eithier. The only other outfield impact bat would be Hamilton, and while his numbers are great, a career 308/366/543, I am cautious as to how his bat will perform outside of the friendly confines of Ranger's Ballpark, and how his off the field issues will effect his on field play.
In conclusion, though I'm excited about the new owners, I'm just not sure how they can turn the Dodgers into a championship team in the next two years, with barely any open positions in which to sign free agents.
Tuesday, March 27, 2012
Opening day roster just about finished
This morning the Dodgers opening day roster became a little clearer as Jamey Wright was officially moved to the 40 man roster this morning. The corresponding move to this was moving Blake Hawksworth to the 60 day DL. This also prompted John Grabow to leave camp looking for work on a big league roster. While some may be sad to see the 33 year old left hander leave, as it means Elbert will be the only lefty on the opening day roster, history has shown that Grabow is not a lefty only specialist as right-handers are hitting 263 against him, and left-handers are hitting 262. Plus the Dodgers have two other young(er) lefty relievers in long shot Scott Rice, who has been very effective, and Matt Chico, both of whom have options, and can be brought up and sent down though out the year if added to the 40 man roster.
So as of now the roster shapes up with :
Starters (4/5): Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsly, Aaron Harang, and Chris Capuano. Ted Lilly we all know will be the number 3, but with his neck stiffness he might be moved to the DL and skipped for a start to allow for an extra player to be put on the 25 man roster.
Starters (8): C AJ Ellis, 1B James Loney, 2B Mark Ellis, 3B Juan Uribe, SS Dee Gordon, LF Juan Rivera, CF Matt Kemp, RF Andre Either.
Bullpen (7): Todd Coffey, Mike MacDougal, Scott Elbert, Javy Guerra, Kenley Jansen, Jamey Wright, Matt Guerrier. This also has Blake Hawksworth on the 60 day DL and Ronald Belisario on the suspended list. Both guys could come back mid-season to bolster the bullpen
Bench (4-6): Tony Gywnn Jr, Adam Kennedy, Jerry Hairston Jr, Matt Treanor. At the moment the last bench spot, once thought to be Jerry Sands, is open as Sands was sent to the minor league camp today. This leave Josh Fields, Luis Cruz, and Justin Sellers in the hunt for the last bench spot. With Fields potential pop I see him as the favorite, especially considering that Mattingly has said he prefers having a right-hander with pop on the bench. Sellers would be my number two due to his defensive prowess, and spring performance, however with options, I don't see him getting the opening day nod. This leave Luis Cruz. Cruz like Sellers can play short (though his defense is not as sharp), but with no options left I see Cruz getting an extended look as Lilly is placed on the DL to skip his first start of the season.
One more note. It's not that I hate Juan Uribe, but one of my hopes for this season is that Mattingly keeps the free swinger on a short leash. Especially since Fields has shown good growth during his short time as a journey-man. Watching Fields' at bats this spring he has shown patience and a solid swing, working the count full many times, and fowling off a number of pitches till finding one he likes. This certainly differs from Uribe's 3 swings and out approach. Though the 8 million would be a tough pill to to swallow for a bench bat and utility player, I think the Dodgers would be a better club for playing Fields as the everyday 3B. Thus, as stated before, I hope Mattingly keeps Uribe on a short, short leash so that we may see him benched and Fields produce.
Friday, March 16, 2012
Dodgers drop two of the last three
Well I guess the hot start to spring training couldn't last, however as we arrive at the halfway point of the Dodgers Catus League tour the team stands at a respectable 7-3-2. During these starts the Dodger starting pitching, which many believe will be solid, but not a strength, has been strong. Let's go over the five starters and their stats so far this spring.
Clayton Kershaw: 7IP, 4H, 3BB, 6SO, 0ER. Highlights: Strikeing out 6 against the Reds starters, including Votto and Bruce
Chad Billingsley: 8IP, 11H, 3BB, 4SO, 4ER. Highlight: In the last game Bills induce 6 groundouts all from his changeup. Plus he is showing better command at the plate with only 3 walks so far.
Ted Lily: 5IP, 7H, 2BB, 1SO, 5ER. Highlight: Looked very solid for 3 innings against his old team the Cubbies. 1 hit and no runs in 3 innings. As per his normal progression, expect his stuff to get better as the year progresses.
Aaron Harang: 5IP, 7H, 0BB, 2SO, 3ER. Highlights: Against the slugger laiden Angels lineup, Harang gave up no free passes, 1 earned run, and had 2 strike outs in 3 innings. A solid start.
Chris Capuano: 4.2IP, 4H, 2BB, 7SO, 2ER. Highlights: Capuano is leading the team in strikeouts right now despite having the fewest innings. Looks like last years 8.1 SO/9 wasn't a fluke.
In all the starters look solid, and seem to be getting better. Adding together each starters last game, they allowed only 4 earned runs. Assuming Kershaw can win 20, and the rest of the starters when averaged together average 10 wins (or 40 wins all together) that put the Starters in line to win at least 60 games, only one less than Kershaw, Kuroda, Lily, Bills, and Rubby put up last year. Also with the solid bullpen that is forming there is no reason why the Dodgers can work another 22 or more wins after the starters are knocked out. Even though the Dodgers starting staff will most likely allow the most home runs out of any staff in baseball, look for them to also lead the league in fewest free passes and for all 5 starteres to have a sub 4.3 ERA by the end of the season and possibly beat last years staff ERA of 3.8.
On another note Dee Gordon had one of the most amazing steals that I've ever seen yesterday. Despite most analyst throwing Dee to the dogs, stating that he: "Does not hit the ball with authority", "One of the weakest hitters in the majors","Can't hit the ball out of the infield","light hitter". Despite all this Dee has been putting up great numbers so far this spring. So far in 18 at bats he has 5 hits for a 278 average, not great. But despite all the complaints about Dee not walking he also has 4 walks and only 1 strikeout to make his on base a very fun 435. In addition he is 5 of 5 for stolen bases. Despite every analyst coming up and saying Dee will be a big flop due to his lack of power, it has been clear that pitchers are afraid, of his speed, and it effects the way they pitch to him, leading to more walks. There is no better example of this than the Dodgers three run first inning against Jared Weaver and the Angels. Weaver was clearly disturbed by Gordon's first pitch bunt single, and then became even more aggitated when Dee stole second, leading to mistake pitches and doubles by Either and Rivera. Also in the last game, Dee's stolen base before even allowing a pitch to be thrown to Jerry Hairston, suprised and unsettled KC prospect Danny Duffy who then allowed 2 earned runs in the first. In fact, of the 8 games that Dee has started, he has scored a run in the first inning in 4 of them. Of Dee's 9 times that he has been on base, he has scored a run 5 times. Despite his lack of power, it cannot be denied that Dee's speed is a dangerous tool that allows for him to not just get on base, but score runs.
Clayton Kershaw: 7IP, 4H, 3BB, 6SO, 0ER. Highlights: Strikeing out 6 against the Reds starters, including Votto and Bruce
Chad Billingsley: 8IP, 11H, 3BB, 4SO, 4ER. Highlight: In the last game Bills induce 6 groundouts all from his changeup. Plus he is showing better command at the plate with only 3 walks so far.
Ted Lily: 5IP, 7H, 2BB, 1SO, 5ER. Highlight: Looked very solid for 3 innings against his old team the Cubbies. 1 hit and no runs in 3 innings. As per his normal progression, expect his stuff to get better as the year progresses.
Aaron Harang: 5IP, 7H, 0BB, 2SO, 3ER. Highlights: Against the slugger laiden Angels lineup, Harang gave up no free passes, 1 earned run, and had 2 strike outs in 3 innings. A solid start.
Chris Capuano: 4.2IP, 4H, 2BB, 7SO, 2ER. Highlights: Capuano is leading the team in strikeouts right now despite having the fewest innings. Looks like last years 8.1 SO/9 wasn't a fluke.
In all the starters look solid, and seem to be getting better. Adding together each starters last game, they allowed only 4 earned runs. Assuming Kershaw can win 20, and the rest of the starters when averaged together average 10 wins (or 40 wins all together) that put the Starters in line to win at least 60 games, only one less than Kershaw, Kuroda, Lily, Bills, and Rubby put up last year. Also with the solid bullpen that is forming there is no reason why the Dodgers can work another 22 or more wins after the starters are knocked out. Even though the Dodgers starting staff will most likely allow the most home runs out of any staff in baseball, look for them to also lead the league in fewest free passes and for all 5 starteres to have a sub 4.3 ERA by the end of the season and possibly beat last years staff ERA of 3.8.
On another note Dee Gordon had one of the most amazing steals that I've ever seen yesterday. Despite most analyst throwing Dee to the dogs, stating that he: "Does not hit the ball with authority", "One of the weakest hitters in the majors","Can't hit the ball out of the infield","light hitter". Despite all this Dee has been putting up great numbers so far this spring. So far in 18 at bats he has 5 hits for a 278 average, not great. But despite all the complaints about Dee not walking he also has 4 walks and only 1 strikeout to make his on base a very fun 435. In addition he is 5 of 5 for stolen bases. Despite every analyst coming up and saying Dee will be a big flop due to his lack of power, it has been clear that pitchers are afraid, of his speed, and it effects the way they pitch to him, leading to more walks. There is no better example of this than the Dodgers three run first inning against Jared Weaver and the Angels. Weaver was clearly disturbed by Gordon's first pitch bunt single, and then became even more aggitated when Dee stole second, leading to mistake pitches and doubles by Either and Rivera. Also in the last game, Dee's stolen base before even allowing a pitch to be thrown to Jerry Hairston, suprised and unsettled KC prospect Danny Duffy who then allowed 2 earned runs in the first. In fact, of the 8 games that Dee has started, he has scored a run in the first inning in 4 of them. Of Dee's 9 times that he has been on base, he has scored a run 5 times. Despite his lack of power, it cannot be denied that Dee's speed is a dangerous tool that allows for him to not just get on base, but score runs.
Friday, March 9, 2012
Another Solid W in the Books
Wow, two solid days of ball by the Dodgers, and now I have a lot to get caught up on.
I guess first we should start with the top of the lineup and Dee Gordon. Going into this spring there were many questions about Dee's ability to take a walk, and how that would reflect on his OBP. We were terrified when Dee stated "In reality, I can hit. So it helps me to be ready to swing and not look for a walk. I could always hit the ball", and yet he has already walked 3 times in less than a dozen plate appearences. It seems that the slight shortstop can't wait to watch analyst put their foot in their mouth as he sets himself up with a solid OBP through hitting and taking walks.
The next starter in the lineup who is showing his swag would be Matt Kemp. After seeing the first few games I started biting my nails, worrying about each at bat as Kemp took long hacks at his Kryptonite, the low and away slider. In his first three games, and nine at bats, Kemp struck out 5 times, almost all of these on sliders low and away. Today though, things were different. Today he had a single, sac fly, and one of his sky high rainbow home runs that just never comes down. Not only that, in his at bats today, the slider that was the thorn in his side before seemed to not be a problem as he laid off them today. My hope is that the first few days Kemp was just testing out which pitches he could hit, and which he couldn't and for the rest of the year he'll lay off the slider low and away.
Andre Either also continued his torrid hitting, grabbing himself a single and a triple. If there were any worries about him not coming back heathy from knee surgury, his base running has put those to rest. And even though we joke about the defense Either puts up in right, with two healthy legs this year, we may even see the tempermental lefty put up a better UZR this year.
The last starter I want to address is AJ Ellis who has also been laughing in the face of his critics. So far this spring AJ has had eight plate appearences with two hits and two walks. For those who were worried that his lack of power would keep him from getting walks, his two hits were both doubles including the one today that flew over the head of Josh Hamilton in center.
Overall four of the eight starters have impressed me so far this spring, and I have to give kudo's to Dave Hanson and his coaching as the Dodger bats look patient and lively so far this spring.
Now onto the guys who aren't going to make the team, but are still being impressive.
The first guy I want to talk about is Justin Sellers, and what a great grinder and ball player he looks to be. When I first saw him play at Dodger Stadium last year I imediately loved his glove, and figured he would be Juan Castro 2.0. But so far he has exceeded my expectations shown real growth as a ball player. All week when he has been playing, people have commented on the fact that a guy with such a small frame swing the bat with his hands at the end of the handle. But they have also noticed that much like Jamey Carrol (who we can't deny was a OBP machine), Sellers will with two strikes will choke up on the bat to improve bat control. Right now in 11 plate appearences, Sellers has 4 hits and 2 walks. With his glove I'd be tempted to give Sellers the everyday 2B position right now, because his glove is just as good as Mark Ellis' and his OBP looks like it could project to be similar to Jamey Carrol's .360, an upgrade from Ellis' career .330 OBP mark.
Also impressing this spring is Josh Fields having 5 hits in 7 at bats including a triple and two doubles. Right now he is showing a swing that made him a first round pick for the White Sox in 04' and helped him hit .365 in 50 games in the Pacific Coast League last year. though he hasn't walked much it seems like he is not getting fooled, and is making solid contact.
Last on this list is Alex Castellanos, whose new nick name seems to be Castle. The former Cardinal who was drafted to play the infield, moved to the outfield, and has now come back to the infield has been on fire this spring. Right now in 7 at bats he has 4 hits including 2 home runs. The most impressive thing so far about his swing is his bat speed, which sends the bat head flying through the air, making his hits laser beams. If he can work on his patience at the plate to draw more walks and strike out less he could be a very potent hitter, especially if he stays at 2B.
A last quick note on hitters, Griff Erikson has 3 at bats and 2 hits, with a double. It looks like his offense may not be an illusion.
At this point, I'm actually more excited about the Dodgers AAA team then the Major league team. Right now with FedEx, and JD Closser catching, Sands at 1B, Castellanos at 2B, Sellers at SS, Josh Fields at 3B, and an outfield of Scott Van Slyke, Matt Angle, and Cory Sullivan, they are practically a Quad A team, and could most likely beat some major league teams, like the Astro's or Mariners. If I were in charge I'd take a long look at some of these guys to enhance the Dodger offense (if Colletti had not blocked them with multi year deals), and for things to be done sooner rather than later, as many of them are getting a little to old to still be prospects (Fields is 29, Sellers is 26, Van Slyke and Castellanos are both 25)
Also quick note on the pitching: starters seem ok, the bullpen looks to be awesome. I'd look for Scott Rice to possibly be picked up as a second lefty reliever after the spring he's been putting up.
I guess first we should start with the top of the lineup and Dee Gordon. Going into this spring there were many questions about Dee's ability to take a walk, and how that would reflect on his OBP. We were terrified when Dee stated "In reality, I can hit. So it helps me to be ready to swing and not look for a walk. I could always hit the ball", and yet he has already walked 3 times in less than a dozen plate appearences. It seems that the slight shortstop can't wait to watch analyst put their foot in their mouth as he sets himself up with a solid OBP through hitting and taking walks.
The next starter in the lineup who is showing his swag would be Matt Kemp. After seeing the first few games I started biting my nails, worrying about each at bat as Kemp took long hacks at his Kryptonite, the low and away slider. In his first three games, and nine at bats, Kemp struck out 5 times, almost all of these on sliders low and away. Today though, things were different. Today he had a single, sac fly, and one of his sky high rainbow home runs that just never comes down. Not only that, in his at bats today, the slider that was the thorn in his side before seemed to not be a problem as he laid off them today. My hope is that the first few days Kemp was just testing out which pitches he could hit, and which he couldn't and for the rest of the year he'll lay off the slider low and away.
Andre Either also continued his torrid hitting, grabbing himself a single and a triple. If there were any worries about him not coming back heathy from knee surgury, his base running has put those to rest. And even though we joke about the defense Either puts up in right, with two healthy legs this year, we may even see the tempermental lefty put up a better UZR this year.
The last starter I want to address is AJ Ellis who has also been laughing in the face of his critics. So far this spring AJ has had eight plate appearences with two hits and two walks. For those who were worried that his lack of power would keep him from getting walks, his two hits were both doubles including the one today that flew over the head of Josh Hamilton in center.
Overall four of the eight starters have impressed me so far this spring, and I have to give kudo's to Dave Hanson and his coaching as the Dodger bats look patient and lively so far this spring.
Now onto the guys who aren't going to make the team, but are still being impressive.
The first guy I want to talk about is Justin Sellers, and what a great grinder and ball player he looks to be. When I first saw him play at Dodger Stadium last year I imediately loved his glove, and figured he would be Juan Castro 2.0. But so far he has exceeded my expectations shown real growth as a ball player. All week when he has been playing, people have commented on the fact that a guy with such a small frame swing the bat with his hands at the end of the handle. But they have also noticed that much like Jamey Carrol (who we can't deny was a OBP machine), Sellers will with two strikes will choke up on the bat to improve bat control. Right now in 11 plate appearences, Sellers has 4 hits and 2 walks. With his glove I'd be tempted to give Sellers the everyday 2B position right now, because his glove is just as good as Mark Ellis' and his OBP looks like it could project to be similar to Jamey Carrol's .360, an upgrade from Ellis' career .330 OBP mark.
Also impressing this spring is Josh Fields having 5 hits in 7 at bats including a triple and two doubles. Right now he is showing a swing that made him a first round pick for the White Sox in 04' and helped him hit .365 in 50 games in the Pacific Coast League last year. though he hasn't walked much it seems like he is not getting fooled, and is making solid contact.
Last on this list is Alex Castellanos, whose new nick name seems to be Castle. The former Cardinal who was drafted to play the infield, moved to the outfield, and has now come back to the infield has been on fire this spring. Right now in 7 at bats he has 4 hits including 2 home runs. The most impressive thing so far about his swing is his bat speed, which sends the bat head flying through the air, making his hits laser beams. If he can work on his patience at the plate to draw more walks and strike out less he could be a very potent hitter, especially if he stays at 2B.
A last quick note on hitters, Griff Erikson has 3 at bats and 2 hits, with a double. It looks like his offense may not be an illusion.
At this point, I'm actually more excited about the Dodgers AAA team then the Major league team. Right now with FedEx, and JD Closser catching, Sands at 1B, Castellanos at 2B, Sellers at SS, Josh Fields at 3B, and an outfield of Scott Van Slyke, Matt Angle, and Cory Sullivan, they are practically a Quad A team, and could most likely beat some major league teams, like the Astro's or Mariners. If I were in charge I'd take a long look at some of these guys to enhance the Dodger offense (if Colletti had not blocked them with multi year deals), and for things to be done sooner rather than later, as many of them are getting a little to old to still be prospects (Fields is 29, Sellers is 26, Van Slyke and Castellanos are both 25)
Also quick note on the pitching: starters seem ok, the bullpen looks to be awesome. I'd look for Scott Rice to possibly be picked up as a second lefty reliever after the spring he's been putting up.
Monday, March 5, 2012
Dodger's Minor Victory
Hooray! Today was the first day of spring ball, and despite all the worries about offense, the Dodgers won the game with a 5 run 6th inning. Unfortunately that offense was put together by the minor league players and not the Dodger regulars. As for pitching, the first two innings saw a good outing from Billingsley, as only Alexi Ramirez was able to get a hit off of him with a line drive that dropped in front of Juan Rivera in left. The other six batters looked slow to recognize pitch location as they tried to shake off their winter rust. For as "flat" as the Chicago offense looked, the Dodger's regulars for the most part looked the same. Mark Ellis, AJ Ellis, and Matt Kemp all put up some decently long at bats, which the announcers called "professional". Andre gave me some hope that he would have a good season when he hit a fly ball to right during his first at bat and showed decent speed legging to hit out to a double. AJ Ellis also hit a nice double the other way to right field with Loney on, unfortunately Loney tried to score from first, and was cut down by a great relay from Fukudome to Beckham to the plate. Overall not a bad performance by the regulars for the first spring training game, but also nothing to be excited about either.
Onto the Minor league players. After a great first inning in relief, where he struck out two, Eovaldi showed some control problems in his second inning. Eovaldi walked two in a row, (they were Konerko and Dunn in his defense) but it led to him becoming a little unraveled. Eovaldi has great stuff, but I'm starting to think that one more season in the minors, to grasp some better control and poise on the mound may not be a bad thing for him. Now for the real exciting part; to open up the sixth inning Gywnn hit a solid single right up the middle. He then took advantage of a rookie mistake by the pitcher (he took way to long to the plate) and stole 2nd by a wide margin. Gwynn even had enough time to do a foot first slide instead of head first. Then Justin Sellers in his first at bat of the spring, showed poise and baseball knowledge. with a runner on second he slapped the ball the other way and hit the ball into the corner, scoring Gwynn. Sellers had the chance to stretch the play into a triple, but with no outs, and remembering how Loney was thrown out at home by Fukudome an inning earlier, he played things smart, and showed patience holding at second. Then Ivan Dejesus with a runner on second, showed solid baseball knowledge slapping another hit into the right field corner to score Sellers. Then I'm going to give Sellers another kudos as he could be seen moving from 3rd to home, waving Dejesus on to third. It's great that Sellers, was not only worried about himself, but kept an eye out for his teammate, giving another pair of eyes on the field to let the runner know where the ball is. After a strike out by Trent Oeltjen, prospect Scott Van Slyke was up. At 6'5" Van Slyke is a big man in the box, and he almost looks uncomfortable standing very tall at the plate. But despite his awkward stance, his swing looks smooth as silk. On a letter high fastball Scott uncoiled and blasted a 400+ line-drive past the left field wall. As soon as the laser beam came off his bat, the only question in spectators minds was how far away would the ball land. So for all the worries about Van Slyke's age, his power looks to be real. Assuming he can show poise and control at the plate, the Van Slyke's may be soon become a two generation major league family.
In summary, the regulars looked just about that, regular. The minor leaguers had some interesting at bats, but, unfortunately there are no spots to play for on the major league roster, we can hope maybe some injuries will open up some chances, but it's unlikely. It's sad to see a franchise, once praised for it's great minor league system, stifle it's homegrown talent so completely.
Onto the Minor league players. After a great first inning in relief, where he struck out two, Eovaldi showed some control problems in his second inning. Eovaldi walked two in a row, (they were Konerko and Dunn in his defense) but it led to him becoming a little unraveled. Eovaldi has great stuff, but I'm starting to think that one more season in the minors, to grasp some better control and poise on the mound may not be a bad thing for him. Now for the real exciting part; to open up the sixth inning Gywnn hit a solid single right up the middle. He then took advantage of a rookie mistake by the pitcher (he took way to long to the plate) and stole 2nd by a wide margin. Gwynn even had enough time to do a foot first slide instead of head first. Then Justin Sellers in his first at bat of the spring, showed poise and baseball knowledge. with a runner on second he slapped the ball the other way and hit the ball into the corner, scoring Gwynn. Sellers had the chance to stretch the play into a triple, but with no outs, and remembering how Loney was thrown out at home by Fukudome an inning earlier, he played things smart, and showed patience holding at second. Then Ivan Dejesus with a runner on second, showed solid baseball knowledge slapping another hit into the right field corner to score Sellers. Then I'm going to give Sellers another kudos as he could be seen moving from 3rd to home, waving Dejesus on to third. It's great that Sellers, was not only worried about himself, but kept an eye out for his teammate, giving another pair of eyes on the field to let the runner know where the ball is. After a strike out by Trent Oeltjen, prospect Scott Van Slyke was up. At 6'5" Van Slyke is a big man in the box, and he almost looks uncomfortable standing very tall at the plate. But despite his awkward stance, his swing looks smooth as silk. On a letter high fastball Scott uncoiled and blasted a 400+ line-drive past the left field wall. As soon as the laser beam came off his bat, the only question in spectators minds was how far away would the ball land. So for all the worries about Van Slyke's age, his power looks to be real. Assuming he can show poise and control at the plate, the Van Slyke's may be soon become a two generation major league family.
In summary, the regulars looked just about that, regular. The minor leaguers had some interesting at bats, but, unfortunately there are no spots to play for on the major league roster, we can hope maybe some injuries will open up some chances, but it's unlikely. It's sad to see a franchise, once praised for it's great minor league system, stifle it's homegrown talent so completely.
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
Spring Training Wishful Thinking
Well here it is the first official day of spring training, as pitchers and catchers are reporting to camp. Despite how the roster looks, as Tony Jackson stated in his new Dodger blog at ESPN, there's always hope, and things could look worse.
For the good news from Mattingly today,
1. Dee Gordon will bat leadoff. While many are worried about his ability to take walks, I believe that his patience will grow as he sees more major league pitching (remember Dee is still fairly new to playing baseball), plus his plus plus speed makes even routine grounders possible infield hits. If he can learn to add bunting to his batting approach expect him to have a great season.
2. Matt Kemp will bat third. This is also good news as Matt Kemp (hard to believe with the season he had) actually preformed better hitting in the three hole, using Either for protection. At 3 Kemp hit 331/418/647 (BA/OBP/SLG), vs 322/394/569 in the 4 hole. While he hits great in both places, the protection of Ethier helps Kemp recieve a more steady diet of fastballs and pitches in the zone. Also with Ethier behind Kemp, it leaves more room for Kemp to run wild on the bases. (With Ethier healthy expect this to be billed like the Braun and Fielder duo of last season.
3. Blake Hawksworth will be starting the season on the DL. It seems weird to take this as good news, but Hawksworth while being satisfactory, he was far from being excellent out of the pen. According to Baseball Reference the Hawk appeared in a high leverage situation in 17 games. In those games batters hit 375 with an OPS of 932. For comparison Jansen appeared in 20 games and held batters to a 116 batting average. In fact by the end of the season he had been relagated mostly to cleanup duty. So the silver lining of this is that depsite Ned's best efforts to block any changes Mattingly may want to make to the roster, Donnie Baseball will get the chance to go fishing in his large, but shallow pool of pitching talent invited to camp. (My bet is on Jamey Wright)
So team positives going into 2012, despite a lack of a proven #2 starter, the starting rotation is deep and decent as all five are established starters. The bullpen looks to be solid with Jansen, Guerra, Elbert, Coffey, and good backup arms in the minors with Eovaldi and Lindblom. Matt Kemp will be coming back, and Andre should be healthy. And Kemp's work ethic from last season seems to have paid off, as a number of Dodger's decided to show up early to camp (Kemp, Gordon, Ellis, Kershaw, Sellers)
Now even though the Dodger infield should be very slick with a glove, we can all agree that their offensive production is going to be equivilent to the amount of wind produced by a butterfly flapping it's wings. Plus with Ned "head up my a**" Colletti at the helm there has only been one spot left on the roster for a non roster invitee, or a minor league player to make the squad. Essentialy there is one spot and fifteen players trying out for it.
So barring injury who gets the spot. Seems to me, despite Sands massive numbers when coming back up for his second drink of coffee with the big team (342 BA and 908 OPS) Dodger management thinks he doesn't have enough seasoning. Since Sands projects to be an everyday, he will most likly start the season in AAA so he doesn't have to sit on a bench. Also with Ned's signings, there is a clear lack of a backup SS in case Dee goes down with an injury. As none of the NRI's strike me as a good backup infielder, my guess is that Sellers will find himself on the major league roster leaving camp.
Now for the wishful thinking aspect. With Kennedy's nearly minimal 800k contract we could all hope that he preforms pitifully enough that they DFA him before camp is over. That opens up one more roster spot. Currently I'm torn between NRI's Jeff Baisley and Josh Fields. Both men are over the hill in prospect terms at 29 (in fact Fields is just 4 days older than Baisley), however, at under 30 and playing the hot corners, both could add value for the Dodgers. Baisley has spent the last 8 years in the A's farm system. He hits for good average and hits for decent power as he hit 20 HR's in the minors last year, but has only played 14 games at the major league level. Baisley also has a good glove at first and third as well. Fields, does not have good fielding (despite his last name), but has shown great power, as he was onced ranked a top 50 prospect in 2007, and hit 23 HR's in the majors the same year. He has an OBP problem, but could have melowed out in his last couple of years floating back and forth between the majors and minors. If there were ever a Quad A player it might be Fields as he enjoyed a 350+ BA his last two seasons in the minors, but has yet to fully translate that in the majors. He could be a very interesting risk, and truthfully, could he be worse than Uribe was last year...?
The rest of my wishes depend on players getting injured in Spring training so that some prospects can play, and since it involves people getting hurt, I'm not gonna say it out loud. In conclusion I will leave you with a slight positive note about Colletti. Despite his major league signing's being aweful this year (minus the Kemp extension), at least he's getting some interesting NRI to camp.
For the good news from Mattingly today,
1. Dee Gordon will bat leadoff. While many are worried about his ability to take walks, I believe that his patience will grow as he sees more major league pitching (remember Dee is still fairly new to playing baseball), plus his plus plus speed makes even routine grounders possible infield hits. If he can learn to add bunting to his batting approach expect him to have a great season.
2. Matt Kemp will bat third. This is also good news as Matt Kemp (hard to believe with the season he had) actually preformed better hitting in the three hole, using Either for protection. At 3 Kemp hit 331/418/647 (BA/OBP/SLG), vs 322/394/569 in the 4 hole. While he hits great in both places, the protection of Ethier helps Kemp recieve a more steady diet of fastballs and pitches in the zone. Also with Ethier behind Kemp, it leaves more room for Kemp to run wild on the bases. (With Ethier healthy expect this to be billed like the Braun and Fielder duo of last season.
3. Blake Hawksworth will be starting the season on the DL. It seems weird to take this as good news, but Hawksworth while being satisfactory, he was far from being excellent out of the pen. According to Baseball Reference the Hawk appeared in a high leverage situation in 17 games. In those games batters hit 375 with an OPS of 932. For comparison Jansen appeared in 20 games and held batters to a 116 batting average. In fact by the end of the season he had been relagated mostly to cleanup duty. So the silver lining of this is that depsite Ned's best efforts to block any changes Mattingly may want to make to the roster, Donnie Baseball will get the chance to go fishing in his large, but shallow pool of pitching talent invited to camp. (My bet is on Jamey Wright)
So team positives going into 2012, despite a lack of a proven #2 starter, the starting rotation is deep and decent as all five are established starters. The bullpen looks to be solid with Jansen, Guerra, Elbert, Coffey, and good backup arms in the minors with Eovaldi and Lindblom. Matt Kemp will be coming back, and Andre should be healthy. And Kemp's work ethic from last season seems to have paid off, as a number of Dodger's decided to show up early to camp (Kemp, Gordon, Ellis, Kershaw, Sellers)
Now even though the Dodger infield should be very slick with a glove, we can all agree that their offensive production is going to be equivilent to the amount of wind produced by a butterfly flapping it's wings. Plus with Ned "head up my a**" Colletti at the helm there has only been one spot left on the roster for a non roster invitee, or a minor league player to make the squad. Essentialy there is one spot and fifteen players trying out for it.
So barring injury who gets the spot. Seems to me, despite Sands massive numbers when coming back up for his second drink of coffee with the big team (342 BA and 908 OPS) Dodger management thinks he doesn't have enough seasoning. Since Sands projects to be an everyday, he will most likly start the season in AAA so he doesn't have to sit on a bench. Also with Ned's signings, there is a clear lack of a backup SS in case Dee goes down with an injury. As none of the NRI's strike me as a good backup infielder, my guess is that Sellers will find himself on the major league roster leaving camp.
Now for the wishful thinking aspect. With Kennedy's nearly minimal 800k contract we could all hope that he preforms pitifully enough that they DFA him before camp is over. That opens up one more roster spot. Currently I'm torn between NRI's Jeff Baisley and Josh Fields. Both men are over the hill in prospect terms at 29 (in fact Fields is just 4 days older than Baisley), however, at under 30 and playing the hot corners, both could add value for the Dodgers. Baisley has spent the last 8 years in the A's farm system. He hits for good average and hits for decent power as he hit 20 HR's in the minors last year, but has only played 14 games at the major league level. Baisley also has a good glove at first and third as well. Fields, does not have good fielding (despite his last name), but has shown great power, as he was onced ranked a top 50 prospect in 2007, and hit 23 HR's in the majors the same year. He has an OBP problem, but could have melowed out in his last couple of years floating back and forth between the majors and minors. If there were ever a Quad A player it might be Fields as he enjoyed a 350+ BA his last two seasons in the minors, but has yet to fully translate that in the majors. He could be a very interesting risk, and truthfully, could he be worse than Uribe was last year...?
The rest of my wishes depend on players getting injured in Spring training so that some prospects can play, and since it involves people getting hurt, I'm not gonna say it out loud. In conclusion I will leave you with a slight positive note about Colletti. Despite his major league signing's being aweful this year (minus the Kemp extension), at least he's getting some interesting NRI to camp.
Friday, February 17, 2012
Putting Either back in line
Well it seems that yesterday, Steve Dilbeck of the LA Times put up an article stating how the Dodgers should lock up Andre Either while he is still on the cheap after a disappointing 2011 and 2010 season.
Taking all the emotion out of the equation, and looking at the entire Dodgers' organization my first reaction is to wait for Either's value to rise and then trade him to a contender some decent near major league ready second base and third base prospects; things the Dodger system is in dire need of, and replace him with the abundance of outfield prospects the Dodgers are currently grooming. Looking from afar, Either is a player whose numbers seem to be declining drasticaly as he ages. His OPS has dropped nearly 100 points in the last 4 years from 885 in '08 to 789 in '11. He plays a mediocre to bad defense in right, and not only has his power number been dropping, but he is also notoriously bad against left handed pitching, and accoridng to last years stats, he is getting worse. In 2010 he had a BB% of 7.3 and a K% of 20.2 against left handed pitching. Last year his BB% dropped to 4.6, and his K% rose to 27.2, both numbers going in the wrong direction. He has also been shown as having a negative effect on the clubhouse, blaming managers, and waisting AB's with poor attitude. From a non-emotional position, I see a good bat against righties, with a subpar attitude, who can't hit lefties, who isn't a great defender, and who's patience at the plate is getting worse with age, not better.
On the other hand, baseball is something we can't help but be romantic about, and has their been any other player who has pulled on our heartstings more in the past three years than Either. Whether it was his tenure as "Mr Clutch" hitting 11 walk off hits during the '08 to '10 seasons, or his most recent 30 game hit streak from this year, the man most certainly knows how to get us to cheer for him.
So where does that put us... Well no matter what at this point Either will be a Dodger for the first half of 2012. So let's say his tryout will be the first two months of the season. I say bat him 4th behind Kemp, so Kemp has protection and room to run. If Either shows some restraint, get's his walks back up, and flashes some of his old power, then I say throw him a 3 yr / 36 mil deal right then and there at the begining of June. If he does not show some grownup restraint, and the clubhouse issues resurface, then I say trade him and gut him for all he's worth (even if his power is back).
Taking all the emotion out of the equation, and looking at the entire Dodgers' organization my first reaction is to wait for Either's value to rise and then trade him to a contender some decent near major league ready second base and third base prospects; things the Dodger system is in dire need of, and replace him with the abundance of outfield prospects the Dodgers are currently grooming. Looking from afar, Either is a player whose numbers seem to be declining drasticaly as he ages. His OPS has dropped nearly 100 points in the last 4 years from 885 in '08 to 789 in '11. He plays a mediocre to bad defense in right, and not only has his power number been dropping, but he is also notoriously bad against left handed pitching, and accoridng to last years stats, he is getting worse. In 2010 he had a BB% of 7.3 and a K% of 20.2 against left handed pitching. Last year his BB% dropped to 4.6, and his K% rose to 27.2, both numbers going in the wrong direction. He has also been shown as having a negative effect on the clubhouse, blaming managers, and waisting AB's with poor attitude. From a non-emotional position, I see a good bat against righties, with a subpar attitude, who can't hit lefties, who isn't a great defender, and who's patience at the plate is getting worse with age, not better.
On the other hand, baseball is something we can't help but be romantic about, and has their been any other player who has pulled on our heartstings more in the past three years than Either. Whether it was his tenure as "Mr Clutch" hitting 11 walk off hits during the '08 to '10 seasons, or his most recent 30 game hit streak from this year, the man most certainly knows how to get us to cheer for him.
So where does that put us... Well no matter what at this point Either will be a Dodger for the first half of 2012. So let's say his tryout will be the first two months of the season. I say bat him 4th behind Kemp, so Kemp has protection and room to run. If Either shows some restraint, get's his walks back up, and flashes some of his old power, then I say throw him a 3 yr / 36 mil deal right then and there at the begining of June. If he does not show some grownup restraint, and the clubhouse issues resurface, then I say trade him and gut him for all he's worth (even if his power is back).
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
Building on a Budget/ AKA Misappropriation of Funds
Looking back on this offseason, things did not go well. Some (hopefully the new owner) needs to kick Ned out the door before he can do any more damage to the team. During the 2011 season the Dodgers were the third oldest team National league team averaging 29.8 years per player. Something hard to imagin when a few years ago in 2008 the promotions kept talking about the "young guns" and the wealth of talent under 30 avaiable (i.e. Kemp, Either, Loney, Kershaw, Billingsley, Martin, Kuo). At that time the Dodgers were the 7th youngest National League team and looked like they could only get better. Here we are 4 years later, with a few guns gone, and the team keeps getting older. Using the 25 man roster set up on TrueBlueLA the Dodgers of 2012 will average 30.4 years per player. Even worse most of these players are locked up for 2 years, so the team will continue it trend towards becoming gray into the 2013 season as well.
Looking at this information, you're most likly thinking that I'm about to go into a big rant about Ned having his head up his ass, or how he wants to use a time machine and go back to 2005 when these players were good, or even maybe he felt bad for all the vetrans who were going to be let go in the bad economy and he just wanted to charity them a finacial furture. All in all I'm not going to say any more about it, because frankly my desk is bloody and about to break from my head hitting it. So it could be the concussion that I've given myself talking, but I'm gonna have a fun little juant into fantasy land, and build myself a better team in my head.
For this exercise in futility I'm only going to use free agents, and will only touch the batting and fielding side of the problem for now.
For next season the Dodgers will be losing 4 relevent bats from the roster, Barajas, Carrol, Miles, and Blake. To fill those spots, Mark Ellis, Adam Kennedy, and Jerry Hairston Jr have been signed to join the team, as well as AJ Ellis is finally getting his first chance at being the main catcher. The other signing was bringing back Juan Rivera to block Jerry Sands (Thank you Ned). We'll start off with the one decent offensive signing this year (the rest are just offensive), which would be Jerry Hairston Jr. A true utility player who can play solid defense at any spot on the infield and outfield, look for him to be a Jamey Carrol 2.0 with not as good an OBP, but more pop. I can also get behind the Dodgers finally letting AJ Ellis get a shot at the majors. While Ellis has been know as a defensive specialist, he has a secret power: he get's on base. In the minors Ellis held over a 400 OBP for his career. And guess who had the best OBP of any catcher with more than 100 PA, that's right! AJ Ellis with a phenomenal 392 OBP. So why am I so high on AJ Ellis despite him being a light hitting catcher. Well, unless you hit home runs during every At Bat, then someone needs to be on base in front in order for a run to score. AJ is that man on base. So in summary, "Do I care how he gets on base?" looks over at imaginary Jonah Hill, and Jonah responds "No he does not".
Alright on to disagreements. First order of business is Juan Rivera. Yes, it was great when you were picked up near the end of the year from being dropped and provided a boost of offense, but are you worth 4 million, sorry no. Especially when it becomes 4 million being paid to esential block Jerry Sands from playing. Looking at thier numbers, Rivera had a 333 OBP and 406 SLG for a 740 OPS for the Dodgers last season while Sands had a 338 OBP and 389 SLG for a 727 OPS. Not a lot of difference between those lines, plus Sands is nearly 10 years younger, plays better defense with a better arm, and can improve on last season's stats. Rivera on the other hand, is over the hill and will be lucky to be within 50 points of his stats. So Rivera get's cut, and guess what Ned, I just saved you 4 million on payroll.
Next, assuming Kennedy and Ellis are never signed, (wow that's another 9.5 million over 2 years or 13.5 million total over 2) left handed and right handed bench bats are needed as well as the every day second baseman. Here's where things get interesting, if I had my way I would drop Uribe from the lineup entirely to have him sit in the club house (He doesn't even deserve to sit on the bench), and occasionaly be allowed out to fan Kershaw on the bench, but the Dodgers wouldn't stand paying 8 million for someone to do nothing. So instead I turn to Justin Sellers, whose glove is just as good as Ellis's is, plus he's 8 years younger, and could be a potential plus with his batting. Basically, if you're going to have an offesive black hole at second, why not play the black hole that cost 400k (plus he may develope some offensive value) rather than the one that is costing nearly 9 mil over 2 years. Now for the bench bats I would propose picking up Wilson Betemit (he signed for 3.25 over 2, so we'll say 3.5 over 2 to get him, and subracting that we still save 10 million) and Brooks Conrad (he signed a minor league contract, so I'll say 800k major league contract would get him). Now you must be thinking, that I'm crazy, to grab two switch hitters, both who have never hit more than 20 HRs for bench bats. But here's the fun part, I'd only be paying them to hit from one side each. Conrad, most notable from his 3 errors during the playoffs in 2010 destroys lefties to the tune of 358 OBP, and 465 SLG for an OPS of 863, and Betemit rakes righties with a 347 OBP, 470 SLG for an OPS of 817. Also both have positional flexibilty to take over at second base or third, allowing for them not just to only pinch hitters, but role players as well. While Conrad and Betemit are not spring chickens they are younger than Kennedy and Mark Ellis, and bring the average age of the 25 man roster down to 29.7, making the Dodgers younger than they were last year. So in summary Blake, Barajas, Carrol, Miles and Rivera put together a line of 324 OBP, 375 SLG for an OPS of 699. My setup of Betemit, Conrad, Ellis, Hairston, Sands, and Sellers is worth 338 OBP, 381 SLG for an OPS of 719 for 9 million less. Which is worth more to you?
Looking at this information, you're most likly thinking that I'm about to go into a big rant about Ned having his head up his ass, or how he wants to use a time machine and go back to 2005 when these players were good, or even maybe he felt bad for all the vetrans who were going to be let go in the bad economy and he just wanted to charity them a finacial furture. All in all I'm not going to say any more about it, because frankly my desk is bloody and about to break from my head hitting it. So it could be the concussion that I've given myself talking, but I'm gonna have a fun little juant into fantasy land, and build myself a better team in my head.
For this exercise in futility I'm only going to use free agents, and will only touch the batting and fielding side of the problem for now.
For next season the Dodgers will be losing 4 relevent bats from the roster, Barajas, Carrol, Miles, and Blake. To fill those spots, Mark Ellis, Adam Kennedy, and Jerry Hairston Jr have been signed to join the team, as well as AJ Ellis is finally getting his first chance at being the main catcher. The other signing was bringing back Juan Rivera to block Jerry Sands (Thank you Ned). We'll start off with the one decent offensive signing this year (the rest are just offensive), which would be Jerry Hairston Jr. A true utility player who can play solid defense at any spot on the infield and outfield, look for him to be a Jamey Carrol 2.0 with not as good an OBP, but more pop. I can also get behind the Dodgers finally letting AJ Ellis get a shot at the majors. While Ellis has been know as a defensive specialist, he has a secret power: he get's on base. In the minors Ellis held over a 400 OBP for his career. And guess who had the best OBP of any catcher with more than 100 PA, that's right! AJ Ellis with a phenomenal 392 OBP. So why am I so high on AJ Ellis despite him being a light hitting catcher. Well, unless you hit home runs during every At Bat, then someone needs to be on base in front in order for a run to score. AJ is that man on base. So in summary, "Do I care how he gets on base?" looks over at imaginary Jonah Hill, and Jonah responds "No he does not".
Alright on to disagreements. First order of business is Juan Rivera. Yes, it was great when you were picked up near the end of the year from being dropped and provided a boost of offense, but are you worth 4 million, sorry no. Especially when it becomes 4 million being paid to esential block Jerry Sands from playing. Looking at thier numbers, Rivera had a 333 OBP and 406 SLG for a 740 OPS for the Dodgers last season while Sands had a 338 OBP and 389 SLG for a 727 OPS. Not a lot of difference between those lines, plus Sands is nearly 10 years younger, plays better defense with a better arm, and can improve on last season's stats. Rivera on the other hand, is over the hill and will be lucky to be within 50 points of his stats. So Rivera get's cut, and guess what Ned, I just saved you 4 million on payroll.
Next, assuming Kennedy and Ellis are never signed, (wow that's another 9.5 million over 2 years or 13.5 million total over 2) left handed and right handed bench bats are needed as well as the every day second baseman. Here's where things get interesting, if I had my way I would drop Uribe from the lineup entirely to have him sit in the club house (He doesn't even deserve to sit on the bench), and occasionaly be allowed out to fan Kershaw on the bench, but the Dodgers wouldn't stand paying 8 million for someone to do nothing. So instead I turn to Justin Sellers, whose glove is just as good as Ellis's is, plus he's 8 years younger, and could be a potential plus with his batting. Basically, if you're going to have an offesive black hole at second, why not play the black hole that cost 400k (plus he may develope some offensive value) rather than the one that is costing nearly 9 mil over 2 years. Now for the bench bats I would propose picking up Wilson Betemit (he signed for 3.25 over 2, so we'll say 3.5 over 2 to get him, and subracting that we still save 10 million) and Brooks Conrad (he signed a minor league contract, so I'll say 800k major league contract would get him). Now you must be thinking, that I'm crazy, to grab two switch hitters, both who have never hit more than 20 HRs for bench bats. But here's the fun part, I'd only be paying them to hit from one side each. Conrad, most notable from his 3 errors during the playoffs in 2010 destroys lefties to the tune of 358 OBP, and 465 SLG for an OPS of 863, and Betemit rakes righties with a 347 OBP, 470 SLG for an OPS of 817. Also both have positional flexibilty to take over at second base or third, allowing for them not just to only pinch hitters, but role players as well. While Conrad and Betemit are not spring chickens they are younger than Kennedy and Mark Ellis, and bring the average age of the 25 man roster down to 29.7, making the Dodgers younger than they were last year. So in summary Blake, Barajas, Carrol, Miles and Rivera put together a line of 324 OBP, 375 SLG for an OPS of 699. My setup of Betemit, Conrad, Ellis, Hairston, Sands, and Sellers is worth 338 OBP, 381 SLG for an OPS of 719 for 9 million less. Which is worth more to you?
Good Morning to all
Welcome one and all, today is the day that I start my own Dodger blog. Even though I love to post comments on other dodger blogs, I've decided that it's time to take a bigger leadership role and start some of my own topics instead of hoping and crossing my fingers that one of the other bloggers picks up the issues I wish to address. On the site I will try to keep an objective and statistical approach to how the Dodgers and baseball is run throughout the year. Hopefully adding insight to what people see in the team, or just call attention to issues within the system (which currently their are WAY too many to count. I implore that any poster's please keep a friendly attitude so we can have constructive discussions. And once again welcome to "Dem Bums Blog"
-Jason
-Jason
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